Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares are surging 16% in Wednesday morning trading, jumping above $112 as investors pile into one of the most explosive AI infrastructure stories on the market right now.
The move builds on a strong recent run. NBIS was already up 11.09% over the prior week and has gained more than 300% over the past year. Today’s surge is the exclamation point on a story that has been building for months.
Gigawatt Campus Approval Lights the Fuse
The most recent catalyst is hard to ignore. Nebius Group received approval for its first gigawatt-scale AI factory campus in Independence, Missouri, with capacity of up to 1.2 gigawatts.
That makes it the company’s largest U.S. facility by a wide margin. The campus is expected to contribute over $650 million to the city and local school districts over 20 years and create over 1,000 local jobs.
This is not just a real estate story; it’s a signal that Nebius is building the physical backbone of the AI economy at a scale most companies can only talk about. The approval unlocks a critical piece of its stated goal of securing more than 3 gigawatts of contracted power by end of 2026.
The Numbers Behind the Momentum
Nebius Group’s Q4 2025 results, filed in February, gave investors plenty to chew on. Group revenue came in at $228 million, up 547% year-over-year. Annualized run-rate revenue reached $1.25 billion by the end of December 2025, exceeding the company’s own guidance range. Core AI cloud revenue grew even faster, up by an astonishing 830% year-over-year.
The company also hit a milestone that matters to profitability skeptics. Nebius Group’s adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time in Q4, with the core AI cloud business expanding its adjusted EBITDA margin from 19% in Q3 to 24% in Q4. That is the kind of operating leverage that changes how investors think about the path to profitability.
Microsoft, Meta, and a $20 Billion Pipeline
Nebius Group has secured AI infrastructure contracts with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) totaling over $20 billion. CEO Arkady Volozh confirmed on the Q4 earnings call:
“Because we have already delivered all of our capacity for the Meta contract. Because we are on track to deliver the capacity for Microsoft through the course of 2026 exactly as planned.”
That kind of pre-sold revenue visibility is rare for a company at this stage. It means the $7 billion to $9 billion annualized run-rate revenue target for end of 2026 isn’t a pipe dream.
More Than a GPU Rental Shop
Nebius Group is also making moves that signal a shift up the value chain. The company acquired Tavily, an agentic search technology company, bringing approximately 700,000 developers onto the Nebius platform.
The agentic AI market is projected to reach up to $200 billion by the early 2030s, and Nebius Group is positioning early. Moreover, the company also plans to be among the first to deploy NVIDIA‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) next-generation Vera Rubin NVL72 AI infrastructure platform for enterprise clients.
Retail sentiment has been running hot, as well. If you want the full picture on how Reddit traders reacted to the Q4 report, including a sharp post-earnings dip that confused many investors, you can learn how Reddit Fell in Love With Nebius Then Panic Sold the Wrong Miss.
What to Watch
Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating on NBIS stock with an average price target of $147.45. More recent coverage puts the average target at $150.71, which implies meaningful upside even from today’s elevated price.
Looking ahead, the next key data point will be whether Nebius Group’s Q1 capacity deployments arrive on schedule, particularly the first tranches tied to the Microsoft contract ramp in the second half of 2026. But no matter how you slice it, Wednesday’s price action indicates strong momentum for Nebius stock.
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