FTAI Aviation Could Surge 43% From Current Levels — BTIG’s $340 Target Explained

FTAI Aviation (NASDAQ:FTAI) has delivered a remarkable run over the past year, with shares up nearly 113% over the trailing 12 months and up 15.36% year-to-date heading into April. The Street consensus sits at $334.20, but BTIG is stepping out with a bolder call, raising its price target to $340. BTIG’s $340 target represents a significant premium to current levels, with execution on 2026 guidance serving as the key variable analysts are watching.

BTIG’s $340 FTAI Prediction

BTIG rates FTAI a Buy, raising its target from $335 to $340. The firm acknowledges FTAI missed Q4 EBITDA relative to consensus but argues the 2026 setup remains attractive. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.625 billion, up from $1.4 billion, with Aerospace Products alone guiding to $1.05 billion. That trajectory, not the Q4 noise, is what BTIG is pricing in.

Key Drivers of FTAI Stock Performance

1. Strong 2026 EBITDA Outlook: Aerospace Products EBITDA grew 76% year-over-year in FY 2025 to $671 million and is guided to $1.05 billion in 2026. CEO Joe Adams noted the business is targeting 40% Aerospace Products margins in 2026, up from 35% in Q4 2025, driven by PMA parts approvals, a CFM materials agreement, and expanded repair capabilities.
2. Attractive Stock Setup Despite Q4 Miss: The Q4 cost of sales ramp to $368.82 million from $257.73 million reflected deliberate production scale-up, not deterioration. Module production hit 228 units in Q4 2025, a 68% increase from Q4 2024, and the 2026 production target was raised to 1,050 modules, representing 39% growth versus 2025.
3. Aviation Infrastructure Positioning: FTAI’s CFM56 aftermarket focus benefits from a structural tailwind. Adams stated total maintenance spend is expected to grow to approximately $25 billion per annum, with FTAI holding roughly 9% annualized market share against a long-term target of 25% per company guidance. The SCI II partnership and FTAI Power Mod-1 first delivery expected in Q4 2026 add additional upside.

What Will It Take for FTAI to Reach $340?

With 102.57 million shares outstanding, a $340 price target would represent a significant premium to current levels. Achieving that requires: (1) execution on the $1.625 billion business segment adjusted EBITDA guidance per management’s raised 2026 outlook, (2) successful SCI II fundraising and deployment by mid-2026, and (3) continued production ramp sustaining margin expansion to 40%.

The primary risk is FTAI’s balance sheet, with $4.04 billion in total liabilities against $334 million in shareholders equity, alongside an active securities fraud lawsuit. Still, with 2026 free cash flow guidance of approximately $915 million and a freshly raised dividend of $0.40 per quarter, BTIG’s conviction that the 2026 EBITDA setup justifies a $340 target reflects a disciplined, earnings-driven case worth monitoring as 2026 progresses.