Wall Street Upgrades Celsius Holdings: Costco Fear Overdone and the Franchise Is Still Growing

Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers upgraded Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH | CELH Price Prediction) to Buy from Hold on Monday, setting a price target of $44, down from $56. The firm sees a buying opportunity after the stock’s sharp recent decline, arguing that the market has overreacted to concerns about Costco (NASDAQ:COST) launching a competing private-label energy drink.

Year-to-date, shares of CELH have now lost nearly 28%, dragging down their one-year performance to a loss of 3.38%.

The Analyst’s Case

Powers describes Celsius as a “still-expanding, profitable, and cash-generative franchise” operating within a “high-growth” energy drink category. Deutsche Bank views the stock as oversold, with the Costco private-label threat failing to justify the magnitude of the selloff. That view has company on Wall Street: TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $66 price target on March 26, also calling the pullback overdone, noting that Costco accounts for only 10% of Celsius’ 2025 sales and that private-label competitors have historically struggled in the energy drink market.

The Selloff in Context

Celsius shares have fallen 32.94% over the past month and are down 25.8% year-to-date, trading at $33.94 as of March 27 — well below the 52-week high of $66.74. The decline came despite a strong Q4 earnings report: revenue of $721.63M beat consensus estimates of $648.28M, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.26 topped the $0.21 estimate. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $2.515B, up 85.54% year-over-year.

Franchise Expansion and Profitability

The business has scaled rapidly through acquisitions. Alani Nu delivered $370M in record Q4 net sales, with retail sales up 76.9% year-over-year in tracked channels. The combined portfolio reached approximately 20% U.S. energy drink dollar share in Q4 2025. CEO John Fieldly noted the company is “entering 2026 with positive momentum, scale and confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable, long-term shareholder value.” Gross margins compressed to 47.4% in Q4 due to integration costs, but management expects recovery to the low 50s as the Alani Nu and Rockstar integrations complete by mid-2026. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $619.6M, representing a 24.6% margin.

What Investors Should Watch

Deutsche Bank’s $44 target implies meaningful upside from current levels, though it sits below the broader analyst consensus target of $68.05, where 18 of 22 analysts carry a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Near-term catalysts include completion of the Alani Nu distribution integration, margin recovery progress, and shelf space resets expected to materialize through spring. The forward P/E of 26.88x suggests the market is already pricing in meaningful earnings recovery — execution on integration timelines will be the key variable to watch.

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