The S&P 500 is mixed after March inflation came in just below forecasts and uncertainty over a peaceful resolution to the Iran war. Tech stocks, though, were once again doing the heavy lifting. Right in the middle is Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), which just logged its eighth consecutive session of gains through Friday’s close, with the stock rising 14% over that span.
That marks its longest winning streak since November 2023, when it posted 10 straight up days, though it only rose about 12% at the time. The current run-up, then, raises the question: Is this run higher signaling Nvidia is finally turning a corner, or is it just another setup to fall back into stagnation? Let’s dig into the numbers and separate signal from noise.
What Powered the Eight-Day Run?
The immediate catalyst traces straight to the factory floor. On Friday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) preliminarily reported record first-quarter revenue of NT$1.13 trillion, or about $35.6 billion, up 35% from a year earlier. That beat expectations and highlighted red-hot demand for advanced AI chips. Nvidia now accounts for roughly 22% of Taiwan Semiconductor’s revenue, overtaking Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as its largest customer. Simply put, when the world’s biggest chip foundry signals capacity constraints on 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer processes tied to AI accelerators, the market reacts in kind.
Nvidia’s own fiscal 2026 results, released in February, have already laid the groundwork. Full-year revenue hit $215.9 billion, up 65% from the prior year, with Data Center revenue alone reaching $193.7 billion, a 68% gain. Those figures dwarf anything from peers. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), for comparison, trades at a forward P/E near 88x while Nvidia sits at roughly 38.5x trailing earnings on a share price around $188.63. Taiwan Semiconductor itself carries a P/E around 35x. The data tells us Nvidia still commands a premium, but its growth engine remains unmatched.
Past Streaks Showed Promise — Then Faded
That said, investors have seen this movie before. Last October, Nvidia posted a five-day winning streak with nearly 15% gains, only to surrender every penny in the weeks that followed. Similar short bursts occurred throughout 2025. Each time, upbeat supplier comments or hyperscaler spending talk lit the fuse, yet the stock gave back the gains once broader market jitters or profit-taking set in.
Granted, those earlier runs lacked the depth of Taiwan Semiconductor’s latest 35% revenue jump or Nvidia’s $68.1 billion Q4 fiscal 2026 print (up 73% year-over-year). Still, the pattern holds: enthusiasm builds fast, conviction wavers even faster.
Does This Run Have Legs?
On the one hand, AI demand shows no signs of cooling. Taiwan Semiconductor’s March sales already pointed to sustained strength in high-performance computing, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s March forecast of $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin sales by the end of 2027 keeps the long-term narrative intact. Nvidia’s gross margin held steady near 75% in recent quarters, and free cash flow continues to fund both dividends and buybacks at a 0.02% yield.
On the other hand, Nvidia’s valuation isn’t cheap. At 38.5x trailing earnings versus the S&P 500’s lower multiple, this means any hint of slower hyperscaler capex could trigger a reset. That doesn’t seem likely at the moment, with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) all planning to spend record sums this year and beyond.
Nvidia’s stock still trades 11% below its 52-week high of $212.19, and year-to-date it is only up 1.1%. History shows these streaks often coincide with broader S&P 500 moves rather than pure Nvidia-specific alpha.
Key Takeaway
When all is said and done, this eight-day streak suggests real momentum, backed by concrete 35% foundry growth and 65% company-wide revenue expansion. Yet it does not yet prove the corner has been turned. Smart investors will be watching Taiwan Semiconductor’s Q1 earnings call next week to see if it reiterates tight capacity through 2027. If so, Nvidia’s run will likely continue. If not, expect the familiar pullback.
That doesn’t mean Nvidia is not a buy. The long-term outlook for the AI chip leader expanding into new verticals beyond data centers — space, robotics, autos, and more — will remain the dominant force for years to come. That is positioning the market will eventually price in. Just don’t bet the farm on one streak alone.
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