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Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS) reports its Q4 FY2025 results today after the close, with the call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. This earnings release carries unusual weight: it marks what management has called the revenue bottom and the first test of the “Navitas 2.0” transformation under a relatively new CEO.
A Deliberate Cliff, Not a Stumble
The setup for Q4 is stark. Management guided revenue to just $7 million, plus or minus $250,000, down from $18 million in Q4 2024, a roughly 61% year-over-year decline. That drop is intentional. CEO Chris Allexandre, who framed the shift as “Navitas 2.0,” has been aggressively cutting the company’s exposure to low-margin mobile charger business in China, calling it a strategic necessity rather than a demand problem.
In the Q3 call, CFO Todd Glickman was direct: “We believe that Q4 will represent the bottom for revenue as these actions will allow us to move faster to concentrate on the high-power business and customers that will, in turn, enable consistent gradual revenue growth throughout 2026.” Gross margin is expected to hold near 38.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points, while operating expenses are guided to approximately $15 million, a 24% reduction year-over-year.
The company enters this report with $151 million in cash and no debt as of Q3, burning roughly $10 to $11 million per quarter. That runway is meaningful, but the clock is running.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q4 FY2025 Estimate |
YoY Change |
Full Year FY2025 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$7.0M |
-61% vs. $18M in Q4 2024 |
$45-46M (TTM $56.6M through Q3) |
| Non-GAAP EPS |
($.05) |
|
|
The Pivot’s Proof Points Are What Matter Tonight
The revenue number itself is almost secondary. What I’ll be watching is whether management can show the pivot is working, not just shrinking the old business but actually building the new one.
First, any update on the NVIDIA collaboration is critical. Navitas was named a power selector partner for NVIDIA’s next-generation 800-volt DC AI factory power architecture, a significant validation. Engineering samples were expected to be finalized in Q4, and supplier selections are supposed to follow in 2026. I want to hear whether those milestones are on track.
Second, gross margin sustainability matters more than the revenue line right now. The company’s non-GAAP margin has held near 38.5% even as revenue collapsed. If that holds at $7 million in revenue, it signals the cost structure is genuinely improving. The long-term target is north of 50%, driven by the Powerchip 8-inch GaN manufacturing transition and a shift toward higher-value AI data center customers.
Third, a key question is whether any early design win announcements or customer traction beyond NVIDIA will emerge. Allexandre noted “very exciting” customer feedback on new 1.2kV SiC chips just before this report. Translating that enthusiasm into named wins or revenue commitments is the next step the market needs to see.
Finally, the 2026 revenue growth trajectory will dominate the Q&A. Management has committed to quarter-over-quarter growth as high-power markets offset the mobile decline, with material AI data center P&L contributions expected starting 2027. Any specificity around the pace of that ramp, or early signs of 48-volt data center wins converting to revenue, will move the stock.
The Bottom Means Nothing Without the Bounce
Navitas has made a calculated bet: sacrifice near-term revenue to reposition for a larger, higher-margin market. The stock is up 182% over the past year, suggesting investors have largely bought the thesis. Tonight is where management has to start delivering evidence, not just strategy. The guidance for 2026 growth will be the most important thing said on this call.
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