After nearly a year of “weeks away” predictions, the CLARITY Act—the bill that would permanently make XRP a digital commodity—is finally moving. The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled the markup for Thursday, May 14 at 10:30 AM EST, ending months of delay. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.42, just below the $1.45 resistance.
But “passes in May” can mean two very different things. Committee passage is the realistic May outcome and could unlock a short-term breakout. Full Senate passage in May—a much harder lift given the five working days before Memorial Day recess—would unlock something much bigger. Where the XRP price goes depends on which version of “May passage” plays out.
What Has to Happen for the CLARITY Act to Pass in May?
The bill has five steps left before becoming law: a Senate Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee version (which passed January 29 on a party-line 12-11 vote), reconciliation with the House version that passed in July 2025, and a presidential signature. The first of those steps is what’s moving this month.
Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott set the markup for May 14, with amendments to be debated before the committee decides whether to advance the bill. That’s the realistic May outcome, and it’s a meaningful one, as the bill has been stuck at this exact step since January, when senators postponed the earlier markup after amendments piled up. The committee is the bottleneck that’s blocked everything else for months.
That said, a full Senate passage in May is a much harder ask. The Memorial Day recess starts May 21, leaving only five working days for the full Senate to act after a May 14 committee vote. Floor procedure typically takes two to three weeks. So, squeezing it in would require fast-tracking the bill with no senators objecting—and given the opposition still in play, that’s not realistic.
Meanwhile, Trump has said he’ll sign the bill immediately upon passage, the same way he signed the GENIUS Act in July 2025. That removes the presidential signature as a wildcard. As things stand, the committee’s May 14 vote will determine whether the bill advances, and if it does, the Senate floor would follow in June.
Where the XRP Price Could Go If the Bill Passes in May
Since April 17, XRP has been forming a cup-and-handle pattern—a setup that often signals a breakout. The price is at $1.42 with the $1.45 wall directly overhead. The handle has held between $1.37 and $1.43, with the neckline at $1.50. Here are two scenarios the XRP price could be headed in May depending on the markup outcome.
Committee Passage Only: $1.70 to $2
A committee passage on May 14 would likely break the $1.45 resistance on news momentum alone. The cup-and-handle pattern targets $1.70 if XRP closes cleanly above $1.50, which is a 20% gain from current levels. The wall has roughly $3 billion in sell orders parked above it, so a committee passage might not be enough to absorb all of that, but would be enough to trigger the breakout above $1.45.
Moreover, if the Senate floor scheduling moves fast by early June, then XRP could rally above $2. XRP ETF inflows would pick up moderately—the funds hit $81.59 million in April, and that pace would need to double to sustain a push above $2.
The bigger price targets of $5 to $10 won’t be triggered by committee passage alone. Those forecasts need full Senate passage to bring in massive institutional capital. A committee passage is a meaningful breakout, but won’t get XRP back to its July 2025 high and beyond.
Full Senate Passage in May: $5 to $10
A full Senate passage in May could trigger ETF inflows of $3-5 billion once federal commodity classification is locked in. Once the bill is signed, Tier-1 banks and institutions waiting on clarity would engage XRP for cross-border settlement at scale, and such level of demand would help XRP break higher price ceilings.
Under full passage, our base prediction is that XRP will hit around $3-$4 by year-end, with $5 reachable if ETF inflows hit around $5 billion. Then the XRP price could surge to the $5 to $10 range if institutions deploy even more capital.
However, this is a very bullish scenario and might not play out in 2026 or even 2027 depending on how capital flows into XRP. Squeezing the full Senate vote into the five working days before recess would need every senator to agree, which won’t happen with the opposition still in play.
On top of that, parts of the bill aren’t even finalized yet. So, this prediction is possible, but not probable—and the price projection reflects that asymmetry.
Why May Is the Trigger, Not the Payoff for XRP
A committee passage on May 14 could see XRP rally to the $1.70 to $2 range, but not the $5 to $10 range that needs the full bill signed into law. The White House has the full path mapped out: Senate Banking markup in May, Senate floor vote in June, House passage by July 4. The Senate only has four working weeks in June, so the timeline is tight.
In conclusion, everything depends on whether the bill clears committee by May 14. A clean passage could trigger the breakout XRP holders have been waiting on. But if amendments pile up and the markup gets postponed the way it did in January, XRP could be capped below $2 for the rest of the year.
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