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Live: Can Rigetti’s Q1 Earnings Tonight Kick Off the Stock’s Next Monster Run?
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Quick Read
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Rigetti must prove it can execute on announced contracts and stabilize margins after Q4 gross margins compressed to 35% from 44%.
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Rigetti Computing (RGTI) reported 2025 revenue of $7.09M, down 34.31% year-over-year, with Q4 missing consensus by 21.68%, but now faces Q1 2026 consensus expectations of $4.13M revenue driven by $5.7M Novera order partial recognition and a deployed 108-qubit Cepheus system at 99.5% two-qubit fidelity.
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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Rigetti Computing’s earnings. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Rigetti’s earnings to be released shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Live Updates
Rigetti's Q1 Earnings Tonight Could Ignite the Next Quantum Stock Explosion
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Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) reports tonight at 4:05 PM EST. Management guided for “significant first-quarter year-over-year revenue growth” against a low Q1 2025 base of $1.472 million, fueled by partial shipment of the $5.7 million Novera on-premises orders.
Watch: Novera shipment timing, the 108-qubit Cepheus deployment at 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, the $589.83 million cash pile, and burn against FY2025’s -$77.2 million free cash flow.
Shares jumped 30.35% over the past month and 8.55% today to $20.56, though still -14.49% year-to-date.
Beat trigger: revenue clearing the bar plus a reaffirmed 150-qubit 2026 timeline or DARPA QBI Stage B selection. Polymarket prices 41% odds of a US federal stake in Rigetti by year-end, a potential catalyst.
Miss trigger: another shortfall or slipped roadmap dates. Focus on operating loss, since GAAP EPS remains distorted by warrant mark-to-market swings.
Rigetti's Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Q1 Earnings Tonight
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Bull Case
- Management explicitly guided for significant Q1 2026 YoY revenue growth, anchored by partial shipment of $5.7M Novera orders.
- Fortress balance sheet with ~$589.83M in cash and investments funds the roadmap to a 150+ qubit system by end of 2026.
- Insiders have been net buyers, including CTO David Rivas acquiring 80,000 shares on March 10, 2026.
Bear Case
- Rigetti missed revenue consensus all four quarters of 2025, capped by a -21.68% Q4 miss.
- FY2025 operating loss hit -$84.66M with free cash flow of -$77.22M.
- Share count ballooned from 171.9M to 298.3M YoY, and the Q3 beat still triggered a -17.71% 30-day drawdown.
Rigetti’s Stock Valuation Faces a Reality Check Tonight After Q1 Earnings
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Rigetti Computing trades at an eye-popping 258x expected sales, so investors are looking for continued execution and positive guidance.
If revenue lands near the $4.13 million expectation and management reiterates timelines for its 108-qubit system rollout and DARPA-related progress, there could be a meaningful path for the stock to rerate toward analysts’ average price target of $29.74 from its current share price of $20.72. But another weak quarter could quickly test investor patience after the stock’s massive recent run.
Investors are watching Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings report due tonight, May 11, at 4:05 PM EST. A fresh order book and management’s promise of a Q1 2026 revenue rebound make this the most loaded earnings report Rigetti has faced in a year.
Rebuilding Credibility After a Slow Year
Rigetti’s full-year 2025 revenue came in at $7.09 million, a 34.31% drop from 2024, and Q4 revenue of $1.87 million missed consensus by 21.68%. That marked a fourth straight quarter of missing revenue estimates.
What management has announced since March:
- A $5.7 million Novera on-premises order with partial Q1 recognition
- A $8.4 million C-DAC deal in India for H2 2026
- End-of-March deployment of the 108-qubit Cepheus system at 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity
Shares responded, climbing roughly 30.35% over the past month to around $20.50, though RGTI remains down 14.49% year to date.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q1 2026 Est. | Q1 2025 Actual | YoY Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.13M | $1.47M | ~+181% |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | Not disclosed | $0.13 (warrant-distorted) | n/a |
| FY26 Revenue (consensus context) | Driven by $5.7M Novera + $8.4M C-DAC (H2 2026) | ||
Novera Shipments and the Cash Runway Question
The single biggest line I’ll be watching is revenue recognition timing on Novera. CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen told the Street to expect less than 50% of the $5.7 million in Q1, with the balance in Q2. The $4.13 million analyst consensus implies meaningful execution. One Reddit analyst flagged the disconnect bluntly: “Either someone knows something about a contract materializing or that estimate is just optimistic noise.”
Investors will also watch gross margin. Q4 margin compressed to 35% from 44% a year earlier, and management warned Novera margins will run lower due to resold, diluted refrigeration units bundled into shipments.
Additionally, the operating loss trajectory matters. FY2025 operating loss reached $84.66 million with free cash flow of -$77.22 million. Liquidity remains ample. Cash and investments closed 2025 at $589.83 million with zero debt, giving Rigetti years of runway at the current burn rate.
Investors will listen for details on DARPA QBI Stage B progress, where Kulkarni said the company should land “in Phase B by the end of this year or thereabouts,” plus the April Novera QPU delivery to a Japanese research customer and any pull-forward signals on the 150-qubit 2026 milestone.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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