Live: Will ASTS Stock Soar Tonight on Q1 Earnings?

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All Eyes Will Be on ASTS's Revenue Growth and Guidance

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Q4 proved AST SpaceMobile could generate meaningful commercial revenue. Q1 now needs to show that revenue can start compounding into a real operating business.

That matters even more with the stock down roughly 22% from recent highs and insider selling increasing scrutiny around near-term execution. The focus now shifts to how quickly ASTS can convert its 50+ mobile network operator relationships into active commercial revenue streams.

Guidance will likely matter more than the quarter itself. Investors want updates on carrier activation, satellite deployment timing, and the pace of commercialization through 2026 and 2027. If management shows adoption is accelerating across major partners like AT&T and Verizon, the company’s path toward potentially approaching $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027 becomes easier to underwrite.

Investors are watching AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) ahead of its first-quarter results that are expected tonight, May 11, at 4:05 PM EST. With BlueBird 7 launched and commercial activation underway, this quarter sets the tone for 2026.

From First Revenue Year to Inflection Point

Q4 2025 marked a turning point. Revenue hit $54.305 million, beating consensus by 28.56% and growing 2,731.3% year over year. It snapped a three-quarter miss streak driven by $36.218 million in gateway product sales and $18.087 million in U.S. Government services revenue.

Since the report, $ASTS sits at $83.78, down 13.66% since the Q4 release and 22.2% over the past month, even after an 11.63% bounce today ahead of the earnings report. Catalysts since the Q4 results included FCC full commercial approval for the 248-satellite constellation in late April. Insiders have been sellers, with 10% owner Hiroshi Mikitani disposing of 3,040,000 shares across April 14 and 15.

Consensus and Guidance Snapshot

Q1 2026 consensus figures were not available in source data. Management’s full-year framing anchors expectations.

Launch Cadence and Commercial Activation Are the Tells

I’ll be watching three things. First, the BlueBird 7 launch outcome. The satellite was encapsulated at Cape Canaveral in February 2026 for a March launch, and management’s 45- to 60-satellite year-end target depends on achieving a 1-2-month cadence.

Second, commercial activation timing. CEO Abel Avellan said, “In 2026, we expect to scale our space-based direct-to-device network from initial commercial activation toward the start of broader commercial service.” Beta offerings are slated for summer 2026, with full commercial revenue in the second half of the year. Any slippage in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, or the UK activation would dent the doubling narrative.

Third, cash discipline. Pro forma liquidity exceeds $3.90 billion after the $1.07 billion convertible offering, but Q4 capex ran $1,064,741,000. Investors will look at quarterly burn relative to the $1.20 billion contracted partner backlog and whether preliminary MNO MOUs convert into definitive agreements, as Verizon and stc Group did. Reddit sentiment sits at 72, which is bullish, though wallstreetbets has openly debated the “5th major 40-55% drawdown since Jan ’25” pattern.