Live: Nu Holdings Reports Q1 Earnings. Could Tonight Be the Start of a Rally?

With Nu Holdings releasing Q1 earnings results tonight at 4:50 PM EST, here are some of the top factors that could impact the market’s reaction:

The Consensus Bar

• Q1 2026 EPS estimate: $0.19, matching Q4 2025’s reported figure
• Track record: 4 beats, 2 misses, and 2 in-line prints across the last 8 quarters

What Could Move Shares

Price action skews defensive: Shares are off 11.46% over the past week and 14.25% over the past month, closing at $12.93. Last quarter’s day-of reaction was -9.55%, resetting expectations lower.

A clean beat paired with stable Brazil credit quality and continued ARPAC expansion could fuel a relief rally toward the $19.87 average analyst target. A miss driven by rising provisions or NIM compression risks a retest of recent lows.

Wild Cards Not in Consensus

Beyond the bull/bear setup, four under-discussed catalysts could swing tonight’s reaction for Nu stock.

• BRL translation drag. The Brazilian real sits at 0.20087741 USD. Any deviation between operational BRL growth and USD-reported figures could distort the headline beat or miss.
• Selic path. Brazilian Central Bank policy directly shapes Nu’s net interest margin and credit demand. A hawkish commentary could pressure 2026 guidance even on a clean quarter.
• Mexico cost ramp. Peso exposure and deposit-pricing competition with incumbents remain unmodeled by many sell-side desks.
• NPL trajectory. With $5.0B in expected credit losses against a $10.9B gross book, a tick higher in delinquencies could overshadow ARPAC strength.

Reddit sentiment reads bullish at 68-74, leaving little cushion for surprises.

Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU | NU Price Prediction) reports Q1 earnings tonight. Here’s the Bull vs. Bear case for the stock:

Bull Case

• FY2025 revenue hit $15.77B (+42.06% YoY) with net income of $2.87B and a 33% Q4 return on equity.
• The customer base reached 131 million, while deposits grew to $41.9B.
• Conditional OCC approval in January 2026 opens U.S. expansion optionality.
• Average analyst price target sits at $19.87 with 19 buys vs. 2 holds. This implies significant upside from the stock’s current price of about $13.

Bear Case

• Expected credit loss exposure stands at $5.0B as loans grew to $10.9B gross.
• Gross profit growth of 29.89% trailed revenue growth of 42.06%, hinting at margin compression.
• Capex jumped 94.74% YoY and total liabilities expanded 50.35% to $63.57B.
• Brazil CAR slipped to 16.6% from 18.1% amid CSLL tax headwinds.

With shares already down 23.42% YTD and last quarter’s reaction at -9.55%, expectations are reset lower heading into tonight.

Last quarter, Nu delivered another record quarter, but the stock still sold off as investors worried that heavier 2026 investment spending could pressure the operating leverage that fueled the original bull case. Now, the focus in Q1 is likely going to shift to whether management can prove the long-term growth engine remains intact.

Investors will likely watch three areas closely:

1. Credit quality
2. ARPAC expansion
3. Management’s ability to frame a clear path through the current cost ramp

With the stock down roughly 23% year-to-date, a strong update from management could quickly improve sentiment. If not, investors may continue to view Nu as a stock going through an “investment year,” as management previously framed 2026 would look like.