When It Comes to Palantir, the Roar of the Bears Is Too Loud to Ignore

I’ll say it plainly: I’m betting against Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) at these levels, and I think the next 12 months will validate that call. The business is excellent. The stock is something else entirely.

Bulls have plenty to celebrate. Q1 2026 revenue ripped 85% year-over-year to $1.633 billion, U.S. commercial grew 133%, and management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 to $7.662 billion. CEO Alex Karp called it “the largest ever full-year revenue guidance raise.” I get the excitement. I just refuse to pay for it.

The Valuation Math Doesn’t Work

Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 155, a price-to-sales of 62, and a forward P/E of 97. Even the EV/EBITDA of 160 is in a category usually reserved for pre-revenue biotech. Morningstar’s fair value sits at $153, with analyst Mark Giarelli flagging “very high uncertainty” on the addressable market. At around $130 per share, you’re paying perfection multiples on a story that’s already down 23% year-to-date.

Insiders Are Heading for the Exits

This is the data point I cannot get past. On March 2, 2026, Peter Thiel disposed of roughly 2 million Class A shares across seven tranches priced between $140.97 and $146.80. CEO Karp himself sold large blocks on February 20, 2026 in the $132 to $135 range. Across 72 recent insider transactions, the net direction is selling. Founders and operators don’t dump shares this aggressively when they think the stock is cheap.

The SBC Dilution Trap

GAAP profitability is being papered over by equity issuance. FY2025 stock-based compensation hit $684 million, while buybacks totaled just $74.985 million. That is net dilution, and it gets worse the longer the stock stays elevated.

Catalysts I’m Watching

Polymarket’s May 2026 market assigns a 51% probability to $126, and the May 13 daily direction market prices a 77% chance of a down close. Reddit’s r/investing has flashed sustained bearish sentiment scores of 22 to 28 across late April. The next earnings report and any government continuing resolution slippage will test the 120% U.S. commercial growth guide.

What Would Change My Mind

Sustained U.S. commercial growth above guidance, a real buyback program that offsets SBC, or a multiple reset accompanied by accelerating earnings. Absent those, I rate my conviction 8 out of 10. From a research standpoint, hedged exposure or AI infrastructure names trading at a fraction of these multiples offer a cleaner risk/reward profile than Palantir at current levels. Great company. Wrong price.