After selling off significantly, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) looks compelling on the numbers, and Bill Ackman appears to agree. Pershing Square has reportedly been loading up on Microsoft while trimming its Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) position, a rotation worth examining because Microsoft has lagged the rest of mega-cap tech this year even as its AI business compounds at triple-digit rates.
Microsoft sits at the center of the enterprise AI buildout through Azure and its restructured OpenAI partnership. The stock has slumped to $424.16, down 11% year to date, while Alphabet ripped 26% higher over the same window. That divergence is the setup. Ackman is buying what the market has temporarily left behind.
Why the Ackman rotation makes sense
Microsoft’s most recent quarter rewarded patience. Q3 FY2026 revenue hit $82.89 billion, up 18.3% year over year, with EPS of $4.27 beating expectations. Azure grew 40%, the AI business now runs at $37 billion annually, up 123% year over year, and commercial remaining performance obligations nearly doubled to $627 billion. That last number is the tell. It is contracted future revenue, already on the books.
Valuation has compressed alongside the stock. MSFT trades at a P/E of roughly 25x, with 33 Buy ratings against 2 Holds and zero Sells, and an analyst target of $559. Operating margins sit at 45.62%, return on equity at 33.28%. The capital base earns its keep.
What the bears are pricing in
Microsoft spent $30.88 billion on capex in a single quarter, up 84.39% year over year. Investors worry whether that money compounds or depreciates. Free cash flow yield is a thin 2.35%, and the capex line keeps climbing. If Azure growth slips below the high 30s, the math on those data centers gets uncomfortable fast.
The competitive picture has tightened. Google Cloud grew 63% last quarter with a $460 billion backlog, faster than Azure off a smaller base, which is partly why Alphabet has outrun Microsoft this year.
All that said, Azure has remained competitive and Microsoft still retains solid momentum it could use to dethrone AWS if it plays its cards right.
The case for sitting tight
Microsoft is a high-quality compounder that just got cheaper, but the rerating may take time. More Personal Computing shrank 1% last quarter, OpenAI investment losses are widening, and the capex bill keeps rising while the stock searches for a bottom.
Patient investors might prefer to see Azure post another 40% growth quarter and capex flatten before adding aggressively. The cost of waiting is real if Ackman is right, but the cost of being early on a still-expanding spend cycle is also real.
The verdict on Microsoft at current levels
Microsoft screens as attractive on the fundamentals. The setup matches what Ackman tends to like. A dominant business with durable economics, a temporary stock price dislocation, and a measurable catalyst pipeline. Azure at 40% growth and $627 billion in contracted revenue gives you multi-year visibility almost no other mega-cap can match. The AI run rate at $37 billion is no longer hypothetical.
The thesis breaks if Azure decelerates into the low 30s, if capex outpaces operating cash generation, or if the OpenAI relationship sours further. Watch the next two Azure quarterly reports, the capex curve, and any update on AI revenue mix. Microsoft at this price is what high-conviction money looks like when it shows up early.
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