Prediction: Why We See ON Semiconductor Hitting a New All-Time High This Year

onsemi (NASDAQ:ON | ON Price Prediction) has staged a remarkable comeback in the semiconductor sector this year, and our proprietary model says the rally has room to run. After bottoming below $41 last spring, the stock has reclaimed the $100 handle as investors price in a cyclical recovery and AI data center power demand.

Our 24/7 Wall St. Price Target for onsemi

The stock trades at $106.02 as of May 19, 2026. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for onsemi is $133.41, implying 25.84% upside over the next 12 months. We rate shares a buy with 90% confidence.

From $44 to $106 in a Year

Shares are up 141.83% over the past year and 95.79% year to date, with a 27.72% one-month surge powering the move. The stock sits roughly 13% below its 52-week high of $119.10, well above the $40.62 low.

Q4 2025 delivered non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 on revenue of $1,530.1M, beating EPS estimates while narrowly missing expectations on the top line. Full-year free cash flow hit a record $1,418.6M, and management authorized a new $6B buyback over three years.

The Case for $148 and Beyond

Bulls see onsemi as a leveraged play on vehicle electrification, AI data center power, and industrial automation. The launch of vertical GaN (vGaN) power semiconductors, the MoU with Innoscience for 200mm GaN-on-silicon, and the GlobalFoundries collaboration on 650V GaN position the company at the cutting edge of next-generation power. The EliteSiC M3e design win inside Xiaomi’s EV SUV underscores automotive traction.

The bull scenario points to $148.38 over the next year, a 39.95% total return, if gross margins re-expand toward 42% and Power Solutions returns to growth.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case starts with valuation. The P/E sits at 340, and implied forward P/E is 45. FY2025 net income collapsed 92.31% to $121M, and all three segments declined double digits in Q4. Barclays initiated coverage at equal-weight with a $75 price target, citing automotive and China exposure.

GAAP earnings were distorted by $666.9M in restructuring and impairment charges tied to manufacturing right-sizing. Bulls argue these one-time hits mask underlying cash generation, evidenced by FCF margin expanding to 23.6% of revenue. The bear scenario sees shares fading to $104.35 if cyclical recovery slips.

I’d Buy It Here

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $133.41 reflects a buy with 90% confidence. Record free cash flow funding a $6B buyback while the cycle inflects upward supports the thesis.

I would be a buyer if Q1 2026 lands inside the guided $1.435B to $1.535B revenue range with gross margins above 38%. I would stay sidelined if automotive bookings weaken or China demand rolls over. The risk-reward leans constructive.

Here is where our model projects onsemi could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume onsemi continues executing on GaN and SiC leadership. Significant upside or downside could come from AI data center power adoption rates and the depth of any renewed automotive softness.

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