Live: Will Salesforce’s Q1 Earnings Tonight Drive a Rebound After the Stock’s 33% YTD Decline?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Salesforce’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Overall Grade: A-

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) delivered a clean double beat with raised guidance, but cash flow growth and insider selling temper an otherwise strong earnings report.

Agentforce ARR of $1.2 billion, up 205%, validates the agentic thesis, yet shares sit -32.78% YTD. Keep an eye on the stock as cRPO of $33.6B (+14%) sets up H2 re-acceleration.

Salesforce said Data 360 ARR tripled year over year to $3.4 billion during the quarter as enterprises increasingly consolidate customer data and AI workloads onto unified platforms.

The company also said it has now delivered 3.8 billion Agentic Work Units to date.

The broader takeaway is that Salesforce is evolving into an AI orchestration and enterprise data platform. While total revenue grew 13%, the company’s AI and data products are growing materially faster and increasingly driving the long-term growth narrative.

Salesforce repurchased a massive $27.1 billion of stock during Q1 while also paying $365 million in dividends, bringing total quarterly capital returns to roughly $27.5 billion.

The buybacks came as Salesforce maintained non-GAAP operating margins near 35% and generated $6.6 billion in free cash flow during the quarter.

The scale of the repurchase activity stands out because Salesforce is simultaneously investing heavily in AI infrastructure and integrating Informatica.

Management is effectively signaling confidence that the business can continue compounding while aggressively shrinking the share count.

Salesforce revealed that Agentforce ARR surpassed $1.2 billion during the quarter, up 205% year over year, while AI & Data ARR climbed to nearly $3.4 billion.

The company also raised its full-year EPS guidance and announced a massive $25 billion accelerated share repurchase agreement.

Quick read:

• Agentforce is continuing to scale into a meaningful business line with triple-digit growth.
• Management also signaled confidence in the second half of FY27, guiding for organic revenue acceleration while continuing aggressive buybacks and margin expansion.

Salesforce just reported earnings, with shares initially moving higher following the report. Here are the key numbers:

Revenue: $11.13B vs. $11.05B expected
Adjusted EPS: $3.88 vs. $3.12 expected

Quick read:
– Salesforce delivered a clean double beat with EPS jumping 50% year over year and revenue growth accelerating to 13%.
– The big focus now shifts toward AI monetization, Agentforce commentary, and whether management raises forward guidance on the call.

Salesforce’s AI business is scaling much faster than most investors realize. Agentforce ARR reached $800 million exiting Q4, up 169% year over year, while the customer count exploded from roughly 3,000 to more than 23,000 in just 15 months.

Management also said bookings for premium AI-enabled SKUs nearly tripled sequentially in Q4 as customers paid materially higher prices for AI functionality layered into Salesforce’s existing platform.

Software stocks sold off hard this year on fears that AI would replace traditional SaaS platforms, but Salesforce’s numbers are telling the opposite story. The company grew FY26 revenue 10% to $41.5 billion, expanded operating margins to roughly 20%, and ended the year with $72.4 billion in remaining performance obligations.

Even more notable, current RPO grew 16% year over year, which suggests revenue growth could accelerate rather than slow down from here.

With Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) reporting after the close, here is the Bull vs Bear case for results tonight:

Bull Case

• Agentforce ARR hit $800M (+169% YoY), with Agentforce + Data 360 combined ARR topping $2.9B (+200% YoY).
• RPO of $72.4B (+14% YoY) anchors forward visibility.
• A $50B buyback and -32.23% YTD reset valuation to a 20x P/E.
• Reddit sentiment flipped bullish, with scores of 66-72 over the last 48 hours.

Bear Case

• Polymarket beat odds collapsed from 92.5% to 64.5% intraday.
• CEO Benioff disposed of 22,560 shares at $189.80 on April 22, with no pre-earnings insider buying.
• FY27 growth of 10-11% includes ~3 points from Informatica, leaving organic growth in high single digits.
• The last beat of 24.92% still produced a -7.24% 30-day return.

Guidance Is Everything

Management’s guidance for the rest of fiscal 2027 will be a major factor for the company’s post-earnings move. The prior framework set FY27 revenue at $45.80 billion to $46.20 billion and non-GAAP EPS at $13.11 to $13.19, with organic re-acceleration promised for H2.

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) typically guides conservatively, then beats. EPS has cleared estimates for 5 consecutive quarters, including a 24.92% surprise last quarter.

Investors want clarity on cRPO growth (16% Y/Y in Q4), Agentforce ARR trajectory off $800 million, and organic growth ex-Informatica.

Bullish: FY27 revenue raised above $46.2B, Agentforce exit ARR guided above $1.5 billion, margins lifted past 34.3%.

Bearish: maintained range, cRPO slipping under 12%, flat margins. Polymarket pegs cRPO most likely at 12-13% (43.2% odds).

Ahead of Salesforce’s (NYSE:CRM) Q1 earnings call tonight, here are some top questions analysts might be wondering:

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• Updated Agentforce ARR run-rate beyond the $800M exit and paid-deal conversion pace.
• Organic growth ex-Informatica and confidence in H2 FY27 re-acceleration.
• Informatica integration, cross-sell traction, and dilution after the $399M Q4 contribution.
• Operating margin defense against rising AI infrastructure spend.
• Pace of the new $50B buyback authorization.

Buzzwords to Listen For

• “Agentic Enterprise,” “Agentic Work Units,” “digital labor,” “tokens processed,” “Zero Copy,” “organic re-acceleration.”

Red Flags

• cRPO growth slipping below 16% YoY.
• Marketing & Commerce stuck near +1%.
• Fresh restructuring charges following $286M in Q4.
• FY27 guidance trimmed below $45.80B.
• Federal exposure softening amid DOGE-era cuts.

Polymarket implies a 93.5% beat probability, so guidance will drive the reaction more than the headline beat.

Salesforce Inc. (CRM) has beaten EPS estimates for five straight quarters, but the stock has struggled to hold momentum as investors question whether the company can reaccelerate growth in a tougher SaaS environment.

Tonight’s report matters because Wall Street wants proof that Marc Benioff’s AI and agentic software vision can still support Salesforce’s long-term $63 billion FY30 revenue target. If management delivers credible signs of stronger second-half growth, the stock’s valuation could have room to expand again.

Prediction markets are leaning bullish ahead of Q1 earnings, with Polymarket traders implying roughly a 93.5% chance that Salesforce beats expectations. Wall Street also remains optimistic overall, as 39 of 51 analysts currently rate the stock a Buy and carry an average price target of $262.27, suggesting analysts still see substantial upside ahead.