The $800 question for Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) comes down to whether the AI capex narrative can re-rate the multiple before late-2026 expense growth bites. Our model says yes, and then some.
Meta currently trades at $635.26. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Meta is $861.97, implying 35.69% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy, with a high 90% confidence reading. So yes, $800 is achievable inside the projection window, though our model points beyond it.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $635.26 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $861.97 |
| Upside | 35.69% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence | 90% |
From $794 Highs to a Sentiment Reset
Meta has rallied 4.99% over the past week but is still down 6.39% on the month and 3.68% year to date. Shares sit roughly 4% off the $794.38 52-week high against a $520.26 low.
Q1 2026, filed April 29, 2026, was a blowout: revenue of $56.31 billion grew 33.1% YoY, EPS of $10.44 beat by 56.79%, and ad pricing climbed 12% alongside 19% impression growth. Reddit chatter has turned bearish on layoffs and the cost of the AI buildout, with composite sentiment falling to 37.35, a -18.41 point swing in a week.
The Case for $890+
Bulls have a clear playbook. Meta Superintelligence Labs is shipping models, capex guidance was raised to $125-145 billion, and Ray-Ban Meta dominates the AI glasses category. 47 Buy and 9 Strong Buy ratings sit against zero sells. Insider activity skews net buying across 220 recent transactions.
Our bull case targets $893.73 by May 2027, a 40.69% return, with $800 reached by early Q4 2026 in that scenario. Goldman Sachs’ 2026 outlook frames AI capex as the marginal growth engine for the broader economy, and Meta sits squarely in that bucket.
What Could Go Wrong
The risks are not subtle. Full-year 2026 expenses guide to $162-169 billion, Reality Labs lost $4.03 billion last quarter, and youth-litigation trials hit court in 2026. The Q1 beat was flattered by an $8.03 billion tax benefit worth $3.13 per share, with tax rates normalizing to 13-16% the rest of the year.
Polymarket traders assign just a 0.3% probability to META hitting $800 in May 2026, clustering instead at $640 with 71% odds. Counterpoint: that capex is funding the compute layer that drove 33% revenue growth, and free cash flow still printed $12.39 billion for the quarter. Our bear case bottoms at $743.85, still a 17.09% return.
Why the Setup Looks Attractive
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $861.97 and buy recommendation hold at 90% confidence. The key factor is the gap between an implied 19x forward multiple at our target and 33% revenue growth that just accelerated.
The bull thesis strengthens if ad pricing stays positive into Q3 and capex translates into measurable AI monetization. The thesis weakens if Q2 operating margins compress below 38% or youth-litigation outcomes turn material. The risk-reward is asymmetric in Meta’s favor.
Meta Price Prediction 2026-2030
Looking further out, here is where our model projects Meta could trade assuming current execution and AI monetization trajectories hold.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $774.73 |
| 2027 | $861.97 |
| 2030 | $1,501.77 |
These projections assume Meta continues monetizing AI infrastructure and Reality Labs losses begin narrowing. Significant upside or downside could come from regulatory rulings, AI capex returns, or a hard advertising recession.
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