Meta Stock Price Prediction: The Case for Nearly 50% Upside

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) has slid hard in 2026, and that selloff has opened up a setup the model rates as one of the most attractive in mega-cap tech.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Meta is $801.42 over the next 12 months, implying 47.63% upside from $542.87. The recommendation is a buy with high confidence at 0.9 on our 0 to 1 scale, driven by accelerating ad revenue, an expanding AI product stack, and a forward P/E that now sits in the mid-teens.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Brutal 2026 Has Reset Expectations

Meta has been one of the year’s worst-performing megacaps. Shares are down 17.62% year to date, 11.27% over the past month, and 23.15% over the past year, sitting just above the $519.78 52-week low and well off the $793.65 high.

The selling has come despite a Q1 2026 report that posted $56.31 billion in revenue, up 33.08% YoY, with EPS of $10.44 against a $6.66 consensus. The bear narrative on Reddit is summed up by a viral r/wallstreetbets post titled “Satya and Zuckerberg are incinerating capital,” a reaction to the raised $125 to $145 billion 2026 capex range.

The Case for $865 and Higher

Bulls have a clean thesis. Advertising is reaccelerating, with Q1 ad impressions up 19% YoY and price per ad up 12%. CFO Susan Li flagged that Instagram ranking changes drove a “10% lift in Reels time spent”, and the value optimization suite’s revenue run rate is “over $20 billion, more than doubling year over year.”

Mark Zuckerberg called Q1 a “milestone quarter” on the back of Muse Spark, the first model from Meta Superintelligence Labs. With 57 buy ratings against zero sells and a Street target of $827.32, our bull case scenario points to $865.18, or 59.37% upside.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case starts with capex. Meta raised 2026 capital expenditures to $125 to $145 billion, on top of $72.22 billion spent in 2025. Reality Labs continues to bleed, with a Q1 operating loss of $4.03 billion against only $402 million in revenue, and EU regulatory pressure plus 2026 youth-litigation trials remain unresolved.

It should be noted, however, that the Q1 EPS optically benefited from a $3.13 per share tax benefit. Stripping it out, underlying EPS of $7.31 still beat consensus, and management argues the capex is funding inference capacity that will monetize. Our bear scenario lands at $701.33, still 29.19% above the current price.

Meta Price Prediction 2026 to 2030

Stripping it down: Meta trades at a forward P/E of 18, generates a 41% operating margin, and is growing ad revenue at 33%. That combination at a discounted multiple is rare. The 24/7 Wall St. price target stays at $801.42 with a buy rating and high confidence.

The bull thesis hinges on management holding operating margins above 38% while the capex cycle peaks. The bear thesis centers on EU regulation or AI ROIC skepticism compressing the multiple further. The risk/reward at $542 is too asymmetric to ignore.

These projections assume Meta continues converting AI infrastructure spend into ad pricing power and agent monetization. Material downside could come from regulatory rulings on EU ads or a sustained Reality Labs drag.