Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) is in an awkward stretch. The stock sits 11.23% below where it traded a month ago, yet the business just printed its strongest growth quarter in years.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Meta is $860.03 over the next 12 months, implying 40.71% upside from the $611.21 close. The recommendation is buy at a 90% confidence level. Stretch the model five years, and Meta crosses the $3 trillion market cap line.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $611.21 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $860.03 |
| Upside | 40.71% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
A Pullback That Masks an Accelerating Business
Meta is down 7.33% year to date and 4.25% over the trailing year, trading 4% below the 52-week high of $794.38. The Q1 2026 report on April 29 told a different story than the chart.
Revenue of $56.31 billion grew 33.1% YoY, ad impressions rose 19%, and price per ad climbed 12%. EPS of $10.44 blew past the $6.66 consensus, the fifth straight beat, helped by an $8.03 billion CAMT tax benefit (operational EPS still cleared $7.31). Family daily active people reached 3.56 billion.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
The bull case rests on advertising compounding while AI infrastructure converts into pricing power. Sell-side coverage shows 9 strong buy and 47 buy ratings against zero sells, with the Street target of $826.69 sitting close to our base case.
Mark Zuckerberg framed the quarter bluntly: “We had a milestone quarter with strong momentum across our apps and the release of our first model from Meta Superintelligence Labs.” The $125 to $145 billion 2026 capex plan funds the GPU stack underneath that ambition. Our model’s bull scenario one year out is $890.59, and net insider direction is buying.
The Risks Worth Watching
Reality Labs lost $19.2 billion across 2025 and another $4.03 billion in Q1 2026. Total costs grew 35% in Q1, slightly outpacing revenue, and U.S. youth-related litigation has trials on the 2026 calendar that could produce a material charge. EU pressure under the Digital Markets Act remains an open file.
Bulls would counter that the capex surge is the investment Meta needs to defend its ad franchise against generative competitors, and Reality Labs losses have actually narrowed sequentially. Our bear scenario still lands at $742.49, a 21.48% return.
Our Take at $611
At $611, the setup looks favorable for investors who can tolerate the capex headlines and the litigation overhang. The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $860.03, a buy rating, and 90% confidence reflect a business compounding at 33% revenue growth with a 22 trailing P/E. I’d stay sidelined if youth litigation produces a multi-billion-dollar verdict or if 2027 capex guidance keeps climbing without ad revenue follow-through.
Meta Platforms Price Prediction 2026-2030
At 2.196 billion shares outstanding, a $3 trillion market cap requires roughly $1,366 per share. Our 5-year base case is $1,583.41 by May 2031, meaning Meta is on track to cross the $3 trillion line during 2030.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $860 |
| 2027 | $1,015 |
| 2028 | $1,185 |
| 2029 | $1,360 |
| 2030 | $1,520 |
These projections assume Meta executes on its superintelligence roadmap and ad pricing holds. A regulatory setback in the EU or a sustained capex overshoot without monetization could push the $3 trillion date into 2031.
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