Meta Is a Buy at $630 Despite 2026 Chop and Here’s Why
Meta keeps beating on revenue and margins while its stock sits well below last year's peak, and the gap between operational strength and share price performance raises a question most investors are getting wrong right now.
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Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META | META Price Prediction) has spent 2026 in a frustrating chop, but our proprietary model sees the current pullback as an opportunity rather than a warning. With shares recovering off a June low and analyst sentiment overwhelmingly bullish, I think the setup for the next twelve months is more attractive than the tape suggests.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Meta is $835.14, implying 32.25% upside from the current $631.48. My recommendation is buy, with a confidence level of 90%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $631.48 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $835.14 |
| Upside | 32.25% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
A Rough Year for a Business That Keeps Beating
Meta shares are down 6.58% year to date and 14.03% over the last year, sitting well below the August 2025 peak near $785. The stock has also just staged a 9.28% one-week rally off the June low.
The disconnect is that operations keep firing. Q1 2026 revenue hit $56.31 billion, growing 33.1% YoY, with EPS of $10.44 beating consensus by 56.79%. Investors have penalized shares over the raised FY2026 capex guide of $125 to $145 billion and Reality Labs losses of $4.03 billion in the quarter. Retail chatter has echoed that skepticism, with Reddit sentiment sitting at a bearish 31 despite the rally.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
The bull case starts with pricing power. Ad impressions grew 19% YoY in Q1, and price per ad rose 12%, a combination competitors cannot match. Family daily active people reached 3.56 billion. Operating margin held at 41% despite the capex ramp.
Meta Superintelligence Labs released its first model this quarter, and Ray-Ban Meta continues to lead the smart glasses category. Of the 63 analysts covering the stock, 49 rate it Buy and 8 Strong Buy. Our bull case scenario points to $869.41 over twelve months if AI monetization surprises to the upside.
The Risks Worth Watching
The bear case centers on capital intensity. FY2025 free cash flow already fell 19.4% as capex nearly doubled. If ROI on the $125 to $145 billion capex plan disappoints, multiples compress fast. EU Digital Markets Act enforcement and 2026 youth-litigation trials add tail risk.
Bulls would counter that Q1 EPS included a one-time $8.03 billion tax benefit worth $3.13 per share, so underlying operating momentum is what matters, and it remains strong. Our bear case target lands at $724.94, still above today’s price.
I’d Buy It Here
My 24/7 Wall St. price target is $835.14 with 90% confidence and a buy recommendation. The tipping factor is valuation: a forward P/E of 19 on a business compounding revenue north of 30% with 41% operating margins is difficult to argue against.
I’d be a buyer here if Q2 revenue lands inside the $58 to $61 billion guide. I’d stay on the sidelines if capex creeps above $145 billion without matching ad-pricing gains.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $835 |
| 2027 | $965 |
| 2028 | $1,110 |
| 2029 | $1,275 |
| 2030 | $1,454 |
These projections assume Meta continues executing on its AI infrastructure and ad-monetization roadmap. Significant upside could come from personal superintelligence commercialization, while downside risk hinges on regulatory outcomes and capex ROI.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
