Vistra vs. Constellation: Which AI Power Stock Is the Better Buy Right Now?

For retirement-focused investors weighing the two dominant independent power producers cashing in on the AI data center buildout, the question is direct: Vistra (NYSE:VST | VST Price Prediction) or Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) — which one belongs in the portfolio right now? Both have ridden the same nuclear-and-gas thesis. Both have signed long-term hyperscaler contracts. But the answer for someone whose horizon is income and capital preservation, not maximum torque, is clear once you compare them across the three dimensions that actually matter.

Dimension 1: Income and Dividend Growth

Constellation pays a quarterly dividend of $0.4265 per share, with the next payment scheduled for June 5, 2026. That payout has marched higher every year since the 2022 spin-off: from $0.141 quarterly in 2022, to $0.3878 in 2025, to today’s rate, with management targeting another 10% annual growth.

Vistra does pay a dividend, but the most recent quarterly distribution was just $0.229 per share. Vistra’s capital return strategy leans on buybacks, not yield: roughly $6.3 billion repurchased since November 2021, a roughly 30% reduction in shares outstanding. Buybacks compound shareholder value, but they do not pay the mortgage.