Ripple (CRYPTO:XRP) is down 3% over the past 24 hours to $1.14, deepening its losses for 2026 so far. The token is now down 38% year-to-date, putting the psychologically important $1 level uncomfortably close to the current price.
The slide fits a broader crypto drawdown rather than a Ripple-specific catalyst. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is down 30% year-to-date to $61,661, and Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is down 45% year-to-date to $1,648. Each is also off 2% to 3% over the past 24 hours.
That sector-wide pattern matters because XRP’s weakness isn’t tied to anything unique about Ripple’s payments business. The token has a famously devoted retail following, but a further slide in overall cryptocurrency sentiment could easily pull XRP through round-number support. With the token sitting just above $1, even a modest additional decline puts the threshold in play.
Sector-Wide Drawdown Frames the Move
The selling in XRP looks more like a risk-off rotation than a token-specific event. Bitcoin’s 30% YTD drawdown and Ethereum’s 45% drawdown indicate that the pressure is broad-based. The VIX, at 18.92, sits in the normal range, but crypto hasn’t recovered proportionally with equities’ ups and down.
The one-month moves are steeper than the YTD figures, which suggests recent acceleration of selling. XRP is down 20% over the past month, while Bitcoin has dropped 24% and Ethereum has fallen 29%. That kind of acceleration matters for the sub-$1 question because momentum, not fundamentals, often drives cryptocurrency prices through short-term technical levels.
The VIX is also sitting in the 72nd percentile of its 12-month range, signaling lingering equity-market unease. Risk assets, including XRP, can stay under pressure as long as that backdrop persists. A cooling in macro volatility could be a prerequisite for a durable crypto bid.
Technical Picture Near $1
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) on XRP printed 29.12 on June 8, with a recent low of 23.45 on June 5. Readings below 30 are typically considered oversold and can precede mean-reversion bounces. However, the weekly RSI has lived under 35 for most of 2026, so oversold conditions alone haven’t been enough to halt the trend.
With XRP-USD near $1.14, the $1 floor is close enough that a typical weekly swing could test it. Crypto volatility cuts both ways. The same conditions that could push Ripple below $1 could fuel a sharp rebound back toward the $1.30 zone, where prediction-market activity settled earlier this year.
On Polymarket, the $1.30 to $1.40 range carried the highest volume at $51,407.83 for the March 1 settlement, while combined sub-$1 outcomes drew only $1,188.95 in volume. XRP sentiment has clearly shifted since then. Whether the $1 strike attracts meaningful new positioning could be a tell on how seriously the market is taking the breakdown risk.
What to Watch Now
A sustained move below $1 would be XRP’s first sub-$1 print of 2026 and could trigger forced selling from leveraged positions. On the other hand, a rebound in Bitcoin or Ethereum could pull XRP higher quickly given how oversold the weekly RSI looks. XRP’s one-year drop of 51% already reflects an extended washout.
Watch for whether Ripple can hold support near $1.10 in the coming days, and whether broader crypto stabilizes alongside it. Macro catalysts, including any Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates, may matter more than anything XRP-specific from here.
The takeaway: a break below $1 is plausible given the proximity, the trend, and the sector backdrop, but far from guaranteed. Investors tracking XRP can weigh the oversold technicals and devoted demand base against the persistent downtrend in 2026, sizing their exposure with crypto’s volatility firmly in mind.
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