Prediction: Strategy Has 216% Upside as Bitcoin Buying Accelerates

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction), the bitcoin treasury company formerly branded as MicroStrategy, has been one of the most volatile stories in large-cap tech over the past year.

After cratering from $455.90 in July 2025 to today’s $123.97, the question on every shareholder’s mind is whether this is a bottom or a falling knife. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Strategy is $391.97, implying 216.18% upside over the next 12 months. We rate shares a buy with medium confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Brutal Year, But Bitcoin Buying Hasn’t Slowed

Strategy shares are down 67.36% over the past year and 30.37% over the past month, with the stock sitting 23% below its 52-week high of $457.22.

Q1 2026 results delivered a $12.54 billion net loss driven almost entirely by a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on bitcoin under fair value accounting. Revenue still grew to $124.30 million, with subscription services jumping 58.7% YoY.

Meanwhile, the bitcoin pile keeps growing. Holdings reached 818,334 BTC by early May, and on June 10 the company added another 1,550 BTC for $101 million. Polymarket traders place a 95% probability on another purchase being announced this week.

The Case for $495 and Higher

Our bull case price target sits at $495.54, a 299.73% total return. Bulls point to relentless BTC accumulation, the runaway success of the STRC preferred stock platform ($5.6 billion raised YTD), and institutional flows. Vanguard and BlackRock added a combined $1.344 billion in May.

CEO Phong Le emphasized that “Adoption of Bitcoin continues to grow in 2026. Digital Credit, highlighted by STRC, has been a big success.” Potential S&P 500 inclusion remains a recurring bullish catalyst in trader commentary.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case target lands at $302.50, still well above today’s price. Real risks include $8.17 billion in long-term debt, perpetual preferred dividend obligations of $229.53 million per quarter, and dilution risk from continuous ATM offerings.

CEO Phong Le and CFO Andrew Kang collectively disposed of more than 146,000 shares on June 5 at prices between $114.79 and $125.14, though much of that activity reflects scheduled vesting events. Polymarket also assigns a 42.5% probability of MSCI delisting by year-end, a meaningful tail risk.

To be fair to bulls, the massive GAAP losses reflect mark-to-market accounting on bitcoin holdings rather than the underlying software business performance. The software business is growing double digits with 67.1% gross margins.

Strategy Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $391.97 reflects a stock that has overshot to the downside on bitcoin volatility while the underlying treasury thesis continues to compound.

I’d be a buyer here if you have conviction that bitcoin trends higher over the next 12 to 24 months and can stomach a beta of 3.47. I’d stay on the sidelines if a bitcoin breakdown below $60,000 looks likely, since convertible note pressure would intensify quickly.

Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Strategy could trade in the coming years, assuming continued BTC accumulation and current capital markets execution.

These projections assume Strategy continues executing on bitcoin accumulation and that the STRC preferred platform scales as planned. Significant upside or downside could result from a regulatory shift, an MSCI or S&P index decision, or a sustained bitcoin price reset.