Shares of Target (NYSE:TGT | TGT Price Prediction) just punched through to a fresh all-time high after a remarkable six-month rebound. The stock closed at $132.64 on June 11, 2026, capping a 38.33% year-to-date surge.
After a blowout Q1 report and raised guidance, the question shareholders are asking is simple: does the rally have another leg, or is this where it cools off? Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Target is $132.64 over the next 12 months, implying the stock is trading right at fair value. Our recommendation is hold, with a confidence level of 90%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $132.64 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $132.64 |
| Upside/Downside | 0% |
| Recommendation | HOLD |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
From the September 2025 Lows to a Fresh Record
Target has rallied 7.1% over the past week alone and 41.04% over the trailing year, climbing from a 52-week low of $81.83 to a 52-week high of $132.96.
The catalyst was a standout Q1 FY2026 report on May 20, 2026: EPS of $1.71 against a $1.4612 estimate (a 17.03% beat), revenue of $25.44 billion up 6.7% YoY, and comparable sales up 5.6% on 4.4% traffic growth. Digital comps jumped 8.9% and management raised full-year sales growth guidance to roughly 4%.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead
The bull case rests on momentum. All six core merchandising categories posted YoY growth in Q1, gross margin expanded to 29% from 28.2%, and high-margin non-merchandise revenue (Roundel ads, Target Circle 360, Target+ marketplace) grew nearly 25%.
CEO Michael Fiddelke called the quarter “stronger than expected” with the clarified strategy “driving broad-based growth.” Retail sales at the macro level just hit $757.1 billion, a 12-month high, providing fundamental support. If Target prints near the high end of its $7.50 to $8.50 EPS range, our internal bull scenario points to $139.27 within 12 months.
Guggenheim raised the firm’s price target on Target to $145 from $140 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
The Risks Worth Watching
The bear case starts with valuation. Forward P/E sits at 15x, in line with historical averages, leaving little room for multiple expansion. After-tax ROIC declined to 12.4% from 15.1%, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 49.8, recessionary territory.
Tariff impacts are explicitly excluded from guidance. Three analysts already rate the stock Strong Sell, and 24 of 38 sit on Hold. Bulls would counter that the ROIC dip reflects capex up 31% YoY on new stores and remodels, an investment cycle that should pay off. Still, our bear scenario suggests downside to $114.94.
Target Price Prediction 2026-2030
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $132.64 matches today’s price, and we rate Target a hold with 90% confidence. The execution is real, but the easy money has already been made off the September 2025 lows. T
he bull case strengthens if Q2 confirms the traffic acceleration and tariff exposure proves manageable. The risk profile worsens if consumer sentiment keeps deteriorating from 49.8 and comps decelerate below the raised 4% sales growth bar.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $132.64 |
| 2027 | $136.50 |
| 2028 | $141.75 |
| 2029 | $146.80 |
| 2030 | $151.41 |
These projections assume Target continues executing on its clarified strategy and that consumer spending holds up. Material upside or downside could result from tariff resolutions, sustained margin expansion in Roundel and Target+, or a deeper consumer pullback than current data suggests.
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