A Turnaround Is Brewing At Starbucks. Here’s Where It’ll End The Year

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) is showing what a turnaround looks like when the model works. Global comps up 7.9%, an EPS beat of 30.79%, and a raised full-year guide have shifted the narrative from “show me” to “how much runway is left?”

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Starbucks is $120.60, implying 15.8% upside from the current $104.14. Our research framework rates shares buy with high confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

From Skepticism to Proof: The Turnaround Is Real

Starbucks has climbed 25.21% year to date and 15.02% over the past year. Shares sit roughly 3% off the 52-week high of $109.23 and well above the September 2025 low near $82.68.

The Q3 FY26 report on July 29, 2026 confirmed the turnaround. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.85 beat the $0.65 consensus, revenue reached $9.32 billion, and North America comps grew 8.1% with transactions up 4.5%. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 430 basis points to 14.4%.

CEO Brian Niccol said “Our third quarter results are proof they do.” Management raised FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $2.55 to $2.65, the third upward revision this year.

The Case for $135+

Bulls have a clear path. If Q4 US comps hit management’s 6.5%+ guide and margin expansion holds, FY27 EPS could push toward $3.25, and a 38x multiple gets shares to our bull-case $135.80 one-year target.

Channel Development grew 22% in Q3, the China joint venture with Boyu Capital shifted 7,991 stores to a higher-margin licensed model, and IEEPA tariff refunds provide tailwind.

Wolfe Research upgraded to Outperform with a $112 price target. BEA figures show food-services spending reached $1,538.3 billion in May 2026, the highest in the dataset.

What Could Go Wrong

Risks are concrete. Prediction-market signals imply a downside target of $91.48, and insider activity has skewed toward selling. Shareholders’ equity remains negative at -$7.67 billion, restructuring charges hit $302.6 million in Q3, and the P/E of 64 leaves little room for comp deceleration.

Our bear case sees shares around $104.65 in a year, essentially flat. The elevated multiple reflects a business in early innings of earnings recovery, and negative book value reflects years of aggressive buybacks and dividends.

How Starbucks Compares to McDonald’s and Chipotle

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD)

McDonald’s trades at a P/E of 26 with operating margin near 45% and Q1 FY26 comps of 2.5%. Starbucks trades at nearly triple the multiple but delivers more than double the comp growth. That premium looks defensible while the turnaround accelerates.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG)

Chipotle’s Q2 FY26 comps came in at flat with restaurant-level margin compressing to 26%, and the stock sits near 52-week lows. Starbucks is now the faster-growing story in fast-casual/QSR, making our $120.60 target look reasonable.

Starbucks Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $120.60 with 90% confidence and a buy rating reflects genuine earnings inflection backed by four consecutive quarters of accelerating comps.

The bull thesis strengthens if Q4 US comps confirm the 6.5%+ guide and margins hold. The thesis weakens if transaction growth stalls below 3% or coffee inflation resurges.

These projections assume Starbucks executes on the Back to Starbucks plan and the China licensed model scales as designed. Upside could come from faster Channel Development monetization; downside would trace to a consumer discretionary pullback.

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