The market has spent much of 2026 rewarding companies tied to artificial intelligence, defense, and space technology with premium valuations. Investors have been willing to pay up for businesses promising decades of future growth, often overlooking near-term fundamentals.
That enthusiasm helped make SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) public debut one of the biggest investing stories of the year. Yet markets eventually force every stock to answer the same question: what is the business actually worth? Today’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 may provide another catalyst, but it doesn’t change the underlying math that long-term investors should be watching.
SpaceX’s Historic IPO Has Already Lost Its Momentum
SpaceX delivered the largest initial public offering in history last month, pricing shares at $135 before opening for trading at $150. Excitement surrounding the company’s dominant launch business, Starlink satellite network, and long-term Mars ambitions pushed the stock to an intraday high of $225.
That excitement has cooled quickly. Heading into midday trading today, SpaceX changes hands around $151, leaving the stock barely above where it first began trading and erasing nearly all of its post-IPO gains.
Several factors have weighed on shares. Early investors have taken profits after the initial rally, valuation concerns have become harder to ignore, and the market has started asking whether expectations simply got too far ahead of the business. While SpaceX remains one of the world’s premier aerospace companies, the stock’s rapid climb priced in years of future success almost immediately.
Morningstar has also argued the shares remain overvalued even after the recent decline, noting that investors are still paying a steep premium relative to the firm’s estimate of intrinsic value. It says it could be worth less than half its IPO price. Meanwhile, the company continues to face the execution risks that come with scaling Starlink globally, developing Starship, and balancing commercial, government, and defense contracts.
Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Could Create Short-Term Buying
Today’s biggest catalyst has nothing to do with launches or satellites.
SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today, becoming the fastest newly public company ever added to the benchmark index. That milestone matters because hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including passive vehicles that must purchase shares to match the index.
Index inclusion often creates a temporary tailwind because funds have little choice but to buy. Once that buying pressure fades, however, investors return to evaluating revenue growth, cash flow, profitability, and valuation.
History shows plenty of stocks receive an index boost only to resume trading based on business performance once passive buying is complete.
Fundamentals Still Matter More Than Index Membership
Granted, SpaceX remains an extraordinary company with leading positions in reusable rockets, satellite internet, and government launch services. The investment case, however, is different from the business itself.
The question isn’t whether SpaceX is an innovative company. It clearly is. The question is whether today’s share price already reflects much of that future success.
Morningstar believes it does. With investors still assigning a premium valuation despite the recent pullback, the margin for disappointment remains thin if revenue growth, Starship development, or Starlink subscriber expansion falls short of expectations.
In the end, index buying cannot create long-term shareholder returns by itself. Only stronger earnings, expanding cash flow, and sustained execution can accomplish that.
Key Takeaway
In short, today’s Nasdaq-100 addition could provide SPCX with a short-lived boost as passive funds purchase shares. Regardless, that demand is mechanical — not fundamental. The stock has already surrendered nearly all of its post-IPO gains despite one of the strongest public debuts ever, and respected research firms such as Morningstar still view the shares as overpriced.
Smart investors should admire the company, but continue watching from the sidelines until the valuation better reflects the business rather than the excitement surrounding it.
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