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What Betting Markets Really Think About the OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks IPOs

By Trey Thoelcke Published Jul 7, 7:45AM EDT

Quick Read

Polymarket traders favor Anthropic 87% to 13% over OpenAI to IPO first, pricing Anthropic at 76% to list by year-end 2026.
SpaceX (SPXC) already went public June 12 and commands 88% odds of being 2026's largest IPO by market cap, dwarfing Anthropic at 13%.
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What Betting Markets Really Think About the OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks IPOs — © 24/7 Wall St.

Prediction market pricing tells a very different story than the artificial intelligence (AI) headlines. As of July 7, 2026, traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a materially higher chance of going public in the next six months than OpenAI, and Databricks is treated as the clear laggard of the three. That flips the media narrative, where OpenAI dominates coverage while Anthropic and Databricks operate in a lower profile.

What follows is a read of what the crowd is actually betting on regarding their paths to the public markets, using the odds exactly as returned by Polymarket. These contracts move constantly and are not guarantees.

Anthropic: The Surprise Front-Runner

The Polymarket event “Anthropic IPO by __?” currently prices year-end 2026 as more likely than not. The December 31, 2026, deadline is trading at $0.755, or a 75.5% implied probability of an Anthropic listing by year-end. Shorter windows drop off quickly: the October 31, 2026, deadline is at $0.365, September 30, 2026, at $0.095, and the July 31, 2026, line at $0.007. The June 30, 2026, contract already resolved NO.

Traders are also pricing in a large valuation on debut. In the closing market cap event, the $1.8 trillion-plus bracket is pricing at $0.545, a 54.5% implied probability that Anthropic prints above that threshold on its first trading day. The event has $89,915.15 in liquidity and $196,449.83 in cumulative volume.

The catalyst framing behind these odds is concrete. Polymarket’s own event context cites Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and the company’s $65 billion Series H at a $965 billion post-money valuation, along with a $47 billion annualized revenue run-rate. Market makers report a competitive intensity score of 0.9821, reflecting tight spreads and active two-sided trading.

OpenAI: Big Headlines, Modest Near-Term Odds

OpenAI’s near-term pricing is far more cautious. The OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap contract, which expires January 1, 2027, prices the “no IPO by December 31, 2026” outcome at 79.5%. That implies roughly a one-in-five probability of a listing in the back half of this year. Cumulative volume on the contract has reached $1,932,550.96, making it one of the deeper IPO markets on the platform.

Where OpenAI still commands a premium is on the size question. Conditional on an IPO occurring, Polymarket’s “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Above [threshold]” contract prices “Above $800B” at 86%, “Above $1T” at 73%, and “Above $1.2T” at 65.5%. Traders also give a 61.6% probability that OpenAI reaches a $1T+ valuation in 2026 at all, public or private.

The head-to-head is the most striking reading. On the “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First?” market, Anthropic is priced at 87% and OpenAI at 13%, with cumulative volume of $220,699.00. In other words, the crowd is betting nearly 7-to-1 that Anthropic reaches the public markets first.

Databricks: The Laggard of the Three

Databricks has already lost one round. The Polymarket event for a Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, resolved with “No IPO” at $0.999. Event metadata attributed the outcome to CEO Ali Ghodsi’s early-June 2026 comments that the company would not pursue an IPO this year amid a crowded slate of large technology offerings, and to the absence of any public S-1 filing.

Looking further out, the December 31, 2027, Databricks event still prices “No IPO by December 31, 2027” as the base case: the “No IPO” outcome is at 0.54, with the remainder distributed across market cap brackets that reference Databricks’ $134 billion late-2025 private funding round. Individual IPO-scenario brackets from under $150B up through $450B-plus range from roughly 0.38 to 0.43 on the “Yes” side, showing the market has no strong view on eventual size once you strip out the “no listing” leg.

The 2026 Mega-IPO Race

Zoom out to Polymarket’s “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?” event, which has drawn $4,660,256.03 in all-time volume, and the pecking order becomes even starker.

SpaceX dominates at 87.5% implied probability, followed by Anthropic at 12.55%, OpenAI at 0.6%, and Databricks at 0.05%. Every other candidate on the board (Stripe, Waymo, Revolut, ByteDance, SHEIN, Discord, Perplexity AI, Kraken) is also priced at 0.05%. The xAI contract was archived on April 28, 2026, leaving it inactive with a wide 0.01/0.50 bid-ask.

SpaceX odds have strengthened by +0.05 over the past month, consistent with its IPO earlier this year: an ETF strategy piece flagged a 27.45% Q2 return for the XOVR crossover fund following the June 12, 2026, SpaceX IPO. Stifel initiated SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) coverage on July 7, 2026, with a Buy rating and a $190 price target.

What to Watch Next

Three catalysts should move these odds materially. First, any public S-1 filing from Anthropic would test the 75.5% year-end 2026 line and the 54.5% $1.8T-plus bracket. Anthropic’s month-over-month odds are already softening, with the December 31, 2026, contract down 13% and the September 30, 2026, contract down 38.5% over the past month. Second, any OpenAI confidential filing would compress the 79.5% “no IPO” leg and put pressure on the 87/13 Anthropic-first head-to-head. Third, Databricks watchers should look for a change in tone from Ali Ghodsi. Absent that, the 54% “no IPO by year-end 2027” reading is unlikely to break down.

Alpha Vantage’s official IPO calendar for the week lists only Alpex Acquisition warrants and rights (July 7, 2026) and Tarsier Pharma (July 9, 2026, NYSE, $8–$10 range). None of the three companies discussed here appears on that pipeline yet—a useful reminder that prediction markets price probability, not a schedule.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.