Three stocks, one question: can any of them triple by 2027? NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) are the three horses in the AI silicon race, and each is priced very differently.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang calls the AI factory buildout “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” Broadcom’s Hock Tan says “the momentum continues” with Q3 AI semi revenue set to grow over 200% year-over-year to $16 billion. I want to know which one has a realistic shot at 3x by 2027.
Why a 3x in 18 Months Is a Stretch for All Three
None of these are cheap. AMD trades at a trailing P/E of 185, Broadcom at 67, NVIDIA at 32. AMD is already up 160.5% YTD and 286.99% over one year. Broadcom is up 46.3% in a year. NVIDIA has lagged its peers with a 13.25% YTD gain, weighed down by China H20 revenue uncertainty.
High betas (2.211 for NVDA, 2.469 for AMD, 1.462 for AVGO) mean each can move sharply, but tripling still requires either monster EPS beats or extreme multiple expansion.
NVIDIA: The Cleanest Setup, Still a Long Shot
NVIDIA’s Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.61B, up 85.2% YoY, with Data Center at $75.25B (+92%). Analyst consensus target is $301.62 and our base case sits at $260.92, bull case $302.07. From $210.96, a 3x target of $633 requires a gain of 200%.
With forward EPS of $8, that implies a forward P/E of 79x, versus a current forward P/E of 26x. Doable only if FY28 EPS blows past $12 and the multiple stays north of 50x. Possible in a runaway AI capex year. Not our base case.
AMD: The Momentum Trade, But the Math Is Punishing
AMD Q1 FY26 revenue was $10.25B (+37.9%) with Data Center at $5.78B (+57%). CEO Lisa Su flagged that “customer engagement around MI450 Series and Helios is strengthening, with leading customer forecasts exceeding our initial expectations.”
The Meta deal covers up to 6 GW of AMD Instinct GPUs. Our base case is $608.05, bull case $637. From $557.89, a 3x of $1,700 requires a gain of 200%. Against forward EPS of $6.87, that implies a forward P/E of 247x. AMD is already priced for perfection at 81x forward. This one is off the table by 2027.
Broadcom: The Dark Horse With a $100B Goal
Broadcom guided Q3 revenue to $29.4B (+84% YoY), and management’s stated goal is to exceed $100B in AI sales by 2027. AI semi revenue grew 143% YoY to $10.8B last quarter. Analyst consensus is $523.73 with 92% bullish sentiment.
Our base case is only $417.83, bull $533.12. From $399.97, a 3x target of $1,200 requires a gain of 200%. On forward EPS of $12, that is a forward P/E of 100x. Current forward P/E is 33x. Aggressive, but at least directionally rational if custom silicon inflects.
The Bottom Line: Who Wins by 2027?
Verdict: none of the three triples by July 2027 in my base case. The exact required gain is 200% for each. NVIDIA has the cleanest path because its forward P/E of 24 gives it the most room to re-rate on earnings.
AMD needs a miracle at 81x forward already. Broadcom sits in the middle with the strongest AI revenue trajectory but a heavy multiple. What derails all three? A hyperscaler capex pause. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how NVIDIA could reach $633 in 2027.
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