The air-taxi trade has come undone this year, it seems. Shares of Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY | JOBY Price Prediction), Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR), and EHang Holdings (NASDAQ:EH) have all slid sharply this year, with drawdowns spanning 40% to over 60%. The question for investors is whether the group is damaged beyond repair or simply oversold.
As of Friday, July 17, Joby stock is down 45% year to date (YTD), Archer stock is down 40%, and EHang stock is down 62%. The pain is fresh, not just a January flush; over the past month, Joby shares fell 22%, Archer shares dropped 16%, and EHang shares slid 28%.
None of the three names are profitable on a trailing 12-month basis. All are still burning cash to fund flight testing, regulatory certification, and manufacturing scale-up while commercial revenue remains modest. Market values are already spread wide: Joby carries a $7.2 billion market cap, Archer $3.47 billion, and EHang just $288 million.
The Why Behind the De-rating
No single headline is driving this move. The market has repriced the entire pre-revenue electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) cohort as risk appetite for speculative growth thinned out. Long FAA and EASA certification runways, dilution risk from repeated equity raises, and persistent operating losses have made these stocks harder to hold.
The numbers make the bear case for themselves. Joby reported a Q4 2025 operating loss of $206.78 million and R&D of $161.26 million, alongside FY 2026 revenue guidance of $105 million to $115 million. Archer’s Q1 2026 net loss widened to $217.7 million from $93.4 million year over year (YoY) on revenue of just $1.6 million. Meanwhile, EHang delivered four EH216 aircraft in Q1 2026, versus 66 in Q4 2025, and revenue collapsed to $3.79 million against a $132.96 million estimate.
Where Each Name Stands
Joby is the best-capitalized of the three. The company ended Q4 2025 with $1.41 billion in cash and added roughly $1.2 billion in equity and convertible debt in February. Partnerships with Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), and L3Harris Technologies give the story reach. Joby Aviation CEO JoeBen Bevirt has framed 2026 as “a key inflection point” ahead of first passenger service in Dubai.
Archer sits on roughly $1.8 billion in liquidity and is the first eVTOL company to close Phase 3 of the FAA’s four-phase Type Certification. It’s the Official Air Taxi Provider of the LA28 Olympic Games and has layered in partnerships with NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), and privately held Anduril. However, several C-suite executives sold Archer stock in May to cover restricted stock unit tax obligations, adding to the negative optics.
EHang is the smallest and, possibly, the most fragile of the three companies mentioned here. EHang’s cash and equivalents have fallen to $23.66 million, and Q1 deliveries collapsed after a record Q4 that included the company’s first GAAP profitable quarter. Yet, EHang still holds the world’s first full suite of airworthiness certifications for a pilotless human-carrying eVTOL, and the board approved a $30 million buyback in June, plus expansion flights in Thailand, Mexico, and Rwanda.
What to Watch Now
The bull case isn’t dead for these stocks. Sell-side analysts still carry a median Joby stock price target of $11.01, implying 52% upside from current levels, with a split of 3 buys, 5 holds, and 3 sells. The order books remain intact, certification progress is real, and the White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program provides a modest policy tailwind for the U.S. names.
The bear case is simpler, though. Without visible revenue ramps, more dilution is likely, and each quarter of delay compresses the equity story. Investors should consider keeping their position sizes modest and treating these as venture-style bets within a diversified portfolio.
Traders can watch for whether Joby launches in Dubai, whether Archer begins U.S. commercial operations later this year as management has guided, and whether EHang’s back-loaded 2026 delivery schedule actually materializes. Those three catalysts, along with macro-level headlines, may decide whether the group is oversold or destined for further declines.
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