The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry is set to transform short-haul travel and urban aviation. It promises commuters can ditch gridlocked highways for quick hops between city centers, airports, or even hospitals, and do so faster, quieter, and greener than helicopters.
These air taxis could slash commute times and open new markets in cargo and defense. But the path to takeoff has been bumpy for investors. Leaders like Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) and Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) have ridden waves of hype, only to crash hard. Archer’s stock is down 14% year-to-date and 42% below recent highs, while Joby is up 80% for 2025, but down 30% from its high point.
Investors have reacted to every twist and turn, fueling wild swings, but the reality of regulatory hurdles and cash burn has grounded their gains. Investment bank Goldman Sachs finally weighed in with fresh coverage on the sector, and their picks may seem surprising.
Neutral Ground for Archer and Eve
Goldman price targets are all over the place, but reflect hefty skepticism about bloated valuations. For Archer and Eve Holding (NYSE:EVEX), Goldman handed out Neutral ratings. Despite Archer getting credit for aggressive launch timelines — it’s eyeing Middle East deployment in 2026 — its U.S.-focused certification push is lagging, and flight hours are behind rivals.
Eve, which was spun off from Brazil’s Embraer (NYSE:EMBJ), relies on that heritage for supply chain expertise and a large home market that is ripe for disruption. Goldman likes its first-mover edge there, but Eve’s development has dragged, with fewer test flights and Embraer’s oversight slowing momentum. Goldman says both sit at fair valuations now, but without a certification edge, they’re not poised to surge.
Joby’s Shock Sell
The real surprise is Joby Aviation’s Sell rating: It has the most flight hours logged, FAA certification is furthest along, and its vertically integrated plan to build, supply, and fly its own fleet sets it apart. Partnerships with Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) add credibility, and like Archer, it is chasing Middle East deals in Dubai for early revenue.
Goldman, though, zeros in on its valuation — a $13 billion market cap on just $23 million in sales is excessive. The end-to-end operator model is comprehensive, but it also demands massive upfront cash for vertiports, training, and fleets. Regulations at every level of government could snag it, too. The analysts called it “unjustified” at current levels, implying 30% downside.
The eVTOL Stock Goldman Loves
BETA Technologies (NYSE:BETA) is Goldman’s lone Buy pick. Fresh off a blockbuster $1 billion IPO last month that Goldman and Morgan Stanley served as lead underwriters on, BETA’s stock tumbled hard after its debut. Now trading at a discount to its $34 offer price, Goldman finds it at an attractive entry point.
What sets BETA apart from its rivals its pragmatic approach: instead of betting everything on full eVTOL certification, BETA is rolling out a conventional takeoff (CTOL) variant first, such as a fixed-wing electric cargo hauler. That unlocks revenue now, from defense contracts and carriers like UPS (NYSE:UPS), while aiming for a vertical-lift certification in 2028.
BETA operates as both an aircraft maker and a parts supplier, and just announced a $1 billion supply deal with Eve for electric motors. Goldman praises what it calls its “stepwise” path for de-risking, plus it has ties to GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE) on hybrid technology. At a $6.6 billion market cap, Goldman says it’s undervalued for its scalability.
Key Takeaways
Although skeptics might question whether Goldman’s underwriting role biases its coverage, it does make a compelling case for BETA as an eVTOL bet with potential. Its hybrid approach could generate cash flow while others burn it, positioning BETA to grab market share in cargo and defense before passenger rides take off.
Yet, don’t discount Joby and Archer either. They are miles ahead on pure eVTOL certifications, with Joby potentially launching services in 2026 if Dubai pans out, and both it and Archer are grabbing defense contracts of their own. BETA’s CTOL plan is clever, but it delays the air-taxi glamour that primarily draws in investors.
For a more conventional, steadier growth trajectory, BETA Technologies might be the way to go, but for those who are risk-tolerant and believe in urban mobility’s potential, Joby or Archer offer much better opportunities at depressed prices.
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