Bill Ackman runs a concentrated book. Pershing Square’s latest 13F filing reveals a five-stock concentrated book that has quietly outperformed the market’s noise. But four of the five names are now trading below where they started the year, and one of them just made a $14.8B takeover bid this week. If you’re not tracking Ackman’s positioning right now, you’re leaving asymmetric setups on the table.
1. Restaurant Brands International (QSR): The Turnaround Nobody’s Talking About
The surprise leadoff is the Burger King parent. Ackman rebuilt his stake in Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR | QSR Price Prediction) precisely because the “Reclaim the Flame” turnaround is inflecting in real time. Same-store sales that were negative a year ago are now positive, and the market is only starting to notice.
The Q1 2026 comp-sales dataset is what matters here. Burger King US comparable sales came in at +5.8%, versus -1.1% the prior year. Tim Hortons just posted its 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales. And the International segment delivered system-wide sales expansion of 11.1%. That translated into net income up 179.87% year over year and free cash flow up 212.96%.
This stock is a buy. Shares are up 17.72% over the past year, and analysts have set a $85.50 price target with 64% bullish consensus. The next name on Ackman’s list is a compounder that just triggered a corporate reorganization vote this week.
2. Brookfield Corporation (BN): Ackman’s AI-Infrastructure Compounder
Brookfield Corporation (NYSE:BN) sits at the intersection of every capital theme Ackman writes about: AI factories, data centers, energy transition, and deglobalization. This is the “buy the pick-and-shovel platform” bet, wrapped in a Canadian alt-asset compounder with a partnership with NVIDIA for AI factory buildout and an $80 billion new nuclear plants partnership with the U.S. government.
The deployable-capital engine is doing the heavy lifting. Fee-bearing capital grew 12% year over year to $613.79 billion. Brookfield deployed $53 billion in Q1 alone and repurchased over $1 billion in shares. And it still sits on nearly $200 billion of total deployable capital, per CEO Bruce Flatt, who noted, “With almost $200 billion of total deployable capital available, we remain active.”
The read: constructive long-term, though the near-term setup skews cautious. Shares are down 3.15% year to date, and our internal model flags a -5.7% base-case downside to $41.01. But 91% of analysts are bullish with a $54.50 target, and the July 16, 2026 shareholder vote to combine BN with Brookfield Wealth Solutions unlocks approximately $145 billion of permanent capital. The heavyweight is next, and its AI numbers just broke a 15-quarter record.
3. Amazon (AMZN): The Obvious Heavyweight, Still Compounding
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is the largest position in the top five by market cap, and it’s the cleanest AI-infrastructure bet in the book. AWS just posted its fastest growth in 15 quarters, and Amazon’s silicon franchise is now a legitimate NVIDIA hedge.
The Q1 2026 dataset speaks for itself. AWS revenue hit $37.59 billion, growing 28%, at a 37.7% operating margin. The chips business (Trainium and Graviton) is running at over $20 billion in annualized revenue with triple-digit YoY growth. Total Q1 EPS of $2.78 crushed the $1.73 estimate by 60.69%, the fifth consecutive beat. AWS CEO Andy Jassy put it plainly on Mad Money: “The two largest AI labs in the world in OpenAI and Anthropic have made multi year, multi gigawatt commitments to Trainium… Today, 98% of the top 1000 EC2 customers use Graviton in a very expansive way.”
The read: bullish setup. Our model targets $324.44 with 31.23% upside, backed by 94% bullish analyst consensus and zero sell ratings. Prediction markets confirm the capex thesis: 0.985 probability that 2026 capex exceeds $170 billion. But the next heavyweight has an even bigger AI backlog.
4. Microsoft (MSFT): The Generational AI Backlog
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has been the year’s disappointment on price. Shares are down 16.69% year to date and 20.03% over the past year. Ackman kept it in the top five because the backlog is what a generational contract looks like.
The cloud-and-AI dataset is what commands attention. Fiscal Q3 2026 Azure and other cloud services grew 40% (39% constant currency). The AI business surpassed a $37 billion annual run rate, up 123% year over year. And the number that changes the model: Commercial remaining performance obligation reached $627 billion, up 99% YoY. CEO Satya Nadella framed it directly: “Our AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year.”
Prediction markets assign 89% probability of a Q4 earnings beat and a 47% probability that Microsoft releases a new MAI thinking model by year-end 2026. At a P/E of 29 and ROE of 33.3%, this is quality on sale. The final name is where Ackman’s alpha shows up. Another stock to add to the buy list.
5. Uber (UBER): The Robotaxi Payoff
And the punchline. Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) is the newest Ackman disclosure and the biggest asymmetric bet in the book. This week, Reddit lit up over Uber’s $14.8 billion takeover bid for Delivery Hero, described by retail investors as “the food delivery wars might be ending.” But the real thesis is autonomous vehicles.
The scale-and-platform dataset is staggering. Q1 2026 Gross Bookings hit $53.72 billion, up 25% YoY. Trips reached 3.6 billion, up 20%, and Uber One membership crossed 50 million, now driving half of Gross Bookings. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi flagged the endgame: a “clear path to becoming the largest facilitator of AV trips in the world.”
The read: bullish, and this is where the model goes loud. Shares are down 18.41% over the past year, creating the setup. Our AI model targets $122.60 with 68.02% upside in the base case, and the five-year bull case runs to $307.19 (320.98% total return). Analyst consensus: 88% bullish, 46 buy ratings, one sell. Ackman bought the dip. The market hasn’t caught up.
The Bottom Line
Ackman’s top five are a coherent bet: quality compounders trading through a rough tape, with three of them (QSR, MSFT, UBER) offering setups the broader market has ignored. QSR’s turnaround is inflecting, BN’s structural reorganization vote has already passed, AMZN and MSFT are the AI infrastructure duopoly, and UBER is the AV kicker with the most upside on the sheet. Four bullish setups and one drawdown opportunity. Price action says the crowd is late; Ackman is already positioned.
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