Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney raised the bar on Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) ahead of Wednesday night’s Q2 2026 earnings report, telling CNBC viewers that Search needs to hold 17%+ growth and Google Cloud needs to accelerate well past 70%. That is a demanding checklist for a company with a $4.29 trillion market cap, with the stock up 83.14% in the past year.
Google Search Must Repeat Its Strongest Growth in Years
Mahaney’s first hurdle is holding the line on ad-driven search. “Search revenue last quarter positively surprised 17%, strongest growth in years. We need a repeat of that, probably at least this quarter, so 17% or greater,” he said.
That reference point comes from Alphabet’s Q1 2026 report, where Google Search & Other revenue reached $60.399 billion. CEO Sundar Pichai attributed the strength to “AI experiences driving usage, queries at an all time high.” Mahaney also flagged that a little bit of softness in advertising at the end of the March quarter did not come through in the June quarter, signaling a strong ad backdrop that reads through positively to Meta as well.
YouTube ads are expected to grow about 11% year over year, roughly in line with the $9.883 billion, 11% YoY result from Q1. This is steady growth, but it’s likely not going to be meaningful enough to drive the stock’s reaction after earnings.
Evercore Says Google Cloud Must Accelerate Beyond 70% Growth
The higher hurdle is Google Cloud. Google Cloud posted $20.028 billion in Q1 with 63% growth. Mahaney is asking for further acceleration from a base that has already climbed sharply through 2025 and 2026. “That cloud segment last quarter shocked people with 63%. I think the bar this quarter has got to be north, well north of 70%,“ Mahaney said.
As a comparison, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is seeing the same challenge. Azure last posted 40% YoY growth, with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $49.10 billion. Mahaney effectively wants to see Google Cloud grow at nearly double the pace of the market leader.
Alphabet’s $185 Billion Spending Plan Raises the Stakes
The cloud number matters because Alphabet’s spending plan has ballooned. “They sort of shocked people by saying that they’re going to spend $185, $195 billion this year. And they said on the March quarter call that in the following year, capex next year is going to grow significantly,“ Mahaney said.
Alphabet saw $35.674 billion in Q1 capex alone, more than doubling YoY. To justify it, investors want visibility. The cloud backlog stood at $400 billion last quarter. Mahaney thinks this can work for Alphabet stock as long as they show strong growth numbers: “The stock can still work in that environment, but you better have a very strong Google Cloud number, and you better have a very strong backlog number.”
Key Takeaways
Evercore’s Mahaney will be looking for Alphabet to post Search growth of at least 17%, Google Cloud growth well above 70%, and another increase in cloud backlog.
Those numbers will help determine whether Alphabet’s massive AI spending is producing enough demand to justify the cost. If growth falls short of these high expectations, the stock could decline even after reporting strong results.
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