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CVX, OXY & XOM: The Next Big Move in Oil Could Be Just Getting Started

Brent crude has swung from $138 to the high $60s and back again in 2026, and three U.S. oil majors are riding that chaos to gains Wall Street did not see coming. The real question is whether the move that…

By Vandita Jadeja
Published August 10, 2026, 2:00pm ET · 3 min read

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Silhouettes of multiple oil pumpjacks stand against a gradient sunset sky, overlaid with translucent digital financial charts, a world map grid, and line graphs showing monthly data from January to May with values like '88.154' and '44.186'.
An overlay of financial charts and a world map on silhouetted oil pumps illustrates the complex interplay of global energy markets and production timelines. © Golden Dayz / Shutterstock.com

Oil has come alive again in 2026. Brent crude spiked to $138 per barrel on April 7 during the Strait of Hormuz disruption, retraced to the high $60s in early July, and now sits near $89. That volatility has fueled the U.S. majors.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX | CVX Price Prediction) is up 24.73% year-to-date, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has advanced 28.88%, and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) leads the group at 37.26%. Here is the path to CVX at $225, XOM at $180, and OXY at $75 in the year ahead.

Why Wall Street Is Warming Up to Oil Majors

All three companies are beating expectations. Chevron posted seven consecutive quarterly EPS beats, with Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $67.20 billion (+51.4% YoY). CEO Mike Wirth credited “disciplined investment and strong execution that drove record U.S. upstream production, record crude throughput in our U.S. refineries, and exceptional reliability across key assets.”

Exxon has strung together 4 consecutive EPS beats, and CEO Darren Woods says the company is “fundamentally stronger” after growing advantaged volumes in Guyana and the Permian. Occidental claims five straight beats, capped by a 29.8% Q2 EPS surprise at $2.40.

CVX price scenario

The Path to $225, $180, and $75

Chevron at $186.56 needs roughly 21% to hit $225. Exxon at $153.04 needs about 18% to reach $180. Occidental at $55.91 requires roughly 34% to $75.

An infographic titled 'CVX, OXY & XOM: Can They Hit Bold Targets in 2027?' on a dark background. The top section features a line chart showing the price trends for CVX (green), XOM (blue), and OXY (orange) from 2022 to August 7, 2026. The chart indicates 2027 price targets: CVX at $225 (+21%), XOM at $180 (+18%), and OXY at $75 (+34%). Below the chart, three boxes display 'Growth Estimates & Valuation' for Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Occidental (OXY), listing their current prices, bold targets, required growth, and Q1/Q2 2026 financial metrics like Adjusted EPS, Revenue, and Free Cash Flow. A quote states, 'Oil has come alive again in 2026... That volatility has fueled the U.S. majors.' Following this, a section on 'Catalysts for Higher Prices' lists five bullet points with checkmarks, covering commodity tailwinds, AI power demand, LNG expansion, strong shareholder returns, and retail conviction. 'It's Happened Before: Historical Returns' displays bar charts for XOM 1-Year (+49.02%), XOM 5-Year (+217.94%), CVX 5-Year (+124.72%), and OXY 5-Year (+126.74%). The 'Risks to Watch' section lists four bullet points with warning signs, including commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, weak natural gas prices, and OPEC production quotas. The infographic concludes with 'The Bottom Line,' stating the targets are ambitious but possible.
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At $180, Exxon would trade near 27x its full-year 2025 EPS of $6.70, close to the S&P 500 average, before factoring in 2026 growth. Occidental at $75 would sit near 15x its forward EPS of $4.85, hardly demanding given the deleveraging story. Chevron’s Q2 run-rate annualizes above $24 in EPS, keeping $225 in normal multiple territory.

XOM price scenario

What Could Push These Stocks Higher

  • Commodity tailwinds. The EIA sees Brent averaging $106 per barrel in May and June and warns OPEC spare capacity will drop to 2.5 million b/d in 2027 after the UAE’s departure.
  • AI power demand. Chevron signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for 2.67 GW of dedicated capacity in West Texas.
  • LNG expansion. Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG Train 1 loaded its first cargo in April 2026, lifting U.S. LNG exports by 5%.
  • Buybacks and deleveraging. Exxon authorized $20 billion in 2026 repurchases. Chevron cut $8.41 billion of debt in a single quarter. Occidental retired $1.9 billion and is closing in on its $10 billion principal target.
  • Retail conviction. One popular r/options thread, “Oil is going to $150+ OXY $55 Jan 15th 2027 Calls,” carries a sentiment score of 88 (very bullish).
OXY price scenario

History Says These Moves Are Possible

Exxon has already gained 49.02% over the past year and 217.94% over five years. Chevron is up 124.72% over five years, and Occidental has climbed 126.74% in the same span. Another 18% to 34% year would be well within recent form.

The Bottom Line on the Bull Case

Chevron’s $18.10 billion in Q2 free cash flow, Exxon’s $15.60 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, and Occidental’s aggressive deleveraging support higher multiples.

Risks remain (OPEC quotas, weak U.S. natural gas prices, and Middle East supply shocks), but with Brent structurally supported and buybacks running hot, $225 for CVX, $180 for XOM, and $75 for OXY are stretch goals worth watching. Returns at this level should not be expected every year, but we have outlined the blueprint for how this trio could see outsized gains in 2027.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial copywriter who loves to read and write about stocks. She believes in buying and holding for long term gains. Her knowledge of words and numbers helps her write clear stock analysis. She has contributed to several publications, including the Joy Wallet, Benzinga, The Motley Fool and InvestorPlace.

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