Is SpaceX or Palantir Expected to Have a Better August?
Palantir just delivered one of the most jaw-dropping software quarters in recent memory, while SpaceX enters August weighed down by lock-up pressure and a skeptical prediction market. Two NASDAQ giants, two radically different risk profiles, and only one looks built…
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Two NASDAQ Heavyweights, Two Very Different Setups
Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) just posted a blowout Q2, while SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) heads into August still digesting its June IPO. Palantir’s numbers reinforce an operational AI story with real cash flow. SpaceX carries a $867 billion market cap, a fresh xAI merger, and skeptical prediction markets pricing an earnings miss.
Blowout Software Quarter Meets IPO Growing Pains
Palantir reported Q2 EPS of $0.41 vs $0.28 expected, a 46.43% beat and 9th consecutive upside surprise. Revenue hit $1.935 billion, up 92.8% YoY, with U.S. Commercial revenue soaring 149% to $764 million. GAAP operating margin reached 47%. CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “otherworldly” and said “the sovereign AI revolution makes us very optimistic about the future.” Free cash flow of $1.22 billion is the sharpest tell here: this software machine is now printing serious money.
SpaceX has no comparable earnings baseline yet. Reddit sentiment sits at 37 (bearish), and Polymarket assigns only a 34.5% probability to a quarterly beat. The stock fell 29.3% over the last month to $114.53, and top Reddit posts flag AI spending and lock-up unlock risk.
| Business Driver | Palantir | SpaceX |
| Main Growth Engine | AIP and U.S. Commercial | Starlink and launch |
| Management Focus | AI sovereignty | xAI integration |
| Cash Profile | $1.22B FCF in Q2 | Undisclosed, heavy R&D |
Software Compounder vs. Capex Beast
These businesses read like opposites. Palantir sells Gotham, Foundry, and AIP with an 82.37% gross margin and 26.23% ROE. Total contract value climbed to $3.373 billion, up 49%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.150 to $8.158 billion. SpaceX is a vertically integrated hardware and connectivity operator with roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries, plus the newly folded-in xAI. The scale is real. Near-term profitability is another story.
The Next Test Is Guidance Digestion vs. Lock-Up Pressure
Palantir also guided FCF toward $4.5 to $4.7 billion for the year. Polymarket puts a 99% probability on PLTR hitting $132 in August and 84% on $150 or better. I will be watching whether U.S. Commercial growth stays north of 130%. For SpaceX, keep an eye on the stock around the earnings market resolution and lock-up flow. Traders peg only a 57.5% chance SPCX finishes August above $110.
Why I Lean Toward Palantir for August
For me, Palantir is the cleaner setup. The Rule of 40 score hit 155%, guidance moved up meaningfully, and free cash flow now covers a lot of the narrative risk that used to hang over this stock. The 177 P/E is uncomfortable, and insiders are net sellers, which tempers the setup. For investors seeking a higher-variance exposure to Elon Musk’s broader ecosystem, SPCX becomes more analyzable once the lock-up dust settles and disclosed segment economics arrive. For August specifically, the operational catalyst clearly tilts to Palantir.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
