Is SpaceX or Palantir Expected to Have a Better August?
Palantir just delivered one of the most jaw-dropping software quarters in recent memory, while SpaceX enters August weighed down by lock-up pressure and a skeptical prediction market. Two NASDAQ giants, two radically different risk profiles, and only one looks built…
Two NASDAQ Heavyweights, Two Very Different Setups
Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) just posted a blowout Q2, while SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) heads into August still digesting its June IPO. Palantir’s numbers reinforce an operational AI story with real cash flow. SpaceX carries a $867 billion market cap, a fresh xAI merger, and skeptical prediction markets pricing an earnings miss.
Blowout Software Quarter Meets IPO Growing Pains
Palantir reported Q2 EPS of $0.41 vs $0.28 expected, a 46.43% beat and 9th consecutive upside surprise. Revenue hit $1.935 billion, up 92.8% YoY, with U.S. Commercial revenue soaring 149% to $764 million. GAAP operating margin reached 47%. CEO Alex Karp called the quarter “otherworldly” and said “the sovereign AI revolution makes us very optimistic about the future.” Free cash flow of $1.22 billion is the sharpest tell here: this software machine is now printing serious money.
SpaceX has no comparable earnings baseline yet. Reddit sentiment sits at 37 (bearish), and Polymarket assigns only a 34.5% probability to a quarterly beat. The stock fell 29.3% over the last month to $114.53, and top Reddit posts flag AI spending and lock-up unlock risk.
| Business Driver | Palantir | SpaceX |
| Main Growth Engine | AIP and U.S. Commercial | Starlink and launch |
| Management Focus | AI sovereignty | xAI integration |
| Cash Profile | $1.22B FCF in Q2 | Undisclosed, heavy R&D |
Software Compounder vs. Capex Beast
These businesses read like opposites. Palantir sells Gotham, Foundry, and AIP with an 82.37% gross margin and 26.23% ROE. Total contract value climbed to $3.373 billion, up 49%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $8.150 to $8.158 billion. SpaceX is a vertically integrated hardware and connectivity operator with roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites across 164 countries, plus the newly folded-in xAI. The scale is real. Near-term profitability is another story.
The Next Test Is Guidance Digestion vs. Lock-Up Pressure
Palantir also guided FCF toward $4.5 to $4.7 billion for the year. Polymarket puts a 99% probability on PLTR hitting $132 in August and 84% on $150 or better. I will be watching whether U.S. Commercial growth stays north of 130%. For SpaceX, keep an eye on the stock around the earnings market resolution and lock-up flow. Traders peg only a 57.5% chance SPCX finishes August above $110.
Why I Lean Toward Palantir for August
For me, Palantir is the cleaner setup. The Rule of 40 score hit 155%, guidance moved up meaningfully, and free cash flow now covers a lot of the narrative risk that used to hang over this stock. The 177 P/E is uncomfortable, and insiders are net sellers, which tempers the setup. For investors seeking a higher-variance exposure to Elon Musk’s broader ecosystem, SPCX becomes more analyzable once the lock-up dust settles and disclosed segment economics arrive. For August specifically, the operational catalyst clearly tilts to Palantir.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
