The U.S. government has refunded roughly $100 billion of the tariff revenue it was forced to return after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s “Liberation Day” duties, according to customs officials who reported to the U.S. Court of International Trade on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. That figure, first reported by the Financial Times and cited by the Guardian’s Lauren Almeida, represents 60% of the roughly $165 billion collected under the invalidated program. Six months ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted ordinary Americans would never see a dime of it. He was right.
The Ruling That Forced the Refund
In February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping global tariffs was unconstitutional. The statute lets the executive “regulate” commerce during emergencies, the majority held, but not “tax” via duties, a power the Constitution reserves to Congress. The ruling forced Treasury and Customs and Border Protection to begin returning money to the businesses that paid it. More than 2,000 companies, including Costco (NASDAQ:COST | COST Price Prediction) and FedEx (NYSE:FDX), filed lawsuits seeking full refunds. The recipients are corporate importers rather than the households that funded the duties at the checkout line.
Bessent’s Forecast, Six Months Later
Speaking at the Economic Club of Dallas on February 23, 2026, Bessent was blunt about who would benefit. “I got a feeling the American people won’t see it,” he said, adding that the process “could be dragged out for weeks, months, years, so … we’ll see what happens there.” He labeled the refunds “ultimate corporate welfare” and pegged the true refundable figure closer to $130 to $134 billion than higher estimates then circulating. His pace prediction proved too pessimistic; refunds hit the 60% mark in roughly five and a half months. His substantive point about who collects has held.
Importers, Not Shoppers
The mechanics explain why. Refunds flow to the Importer of Record, the U.S. business that paid the duty to Customs and Border Protection, while the retail buyer who absorbed the cost in a higher shelf price receives nothing. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan warned in February that “Tariff rebates will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, and act as a fiscal stimulus. Any rebates will be paid to U.S. importers… it seems unlikely anyone will rush to lower prices to their customers.” The gap between what consumers paid and what businesses will get back is stark. Joint Economic Committee Democrats estimated households absorbed more than $231 billion in tariff costs between February 2025 and January 2026, roughly $1,745 per family. Goods inflation, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis measure, ran at 4.77% year over year in May 2026, up from a virtually flat reading when collections began.
The Clock and the Interest Meter
Judge Richard Eaton, overseeing the unwinding at the Court of International Trade, has pushed CBP hard. The agency built its refund pipeline in four components: a claim portal, mass processing, review and reliquidation, and disbursement, reported at 40% to 80% complete across components in March 2026. Eaton’s March order laid out the cost of delay. “These duties must now be refunded with interest, and the clock is ticking… American taxpayers will bear this financial burden,” he wrote, flagging that roughly $650 million in interest accrues per month on the unpaid balance.
The administration has kept the tariff revenue spigot open through alternative authorities, a 15% rate under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, plus Section 232 and Section 301. New collections have not meaningfully slowed. What to watch next quarter: whether the remaining 40% clears by year end, and whether a single dollar reaches a household. On current mechanics, it will not.
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