Memory and storage stocks opened roughly flat Thursday and then rallied sharply through the morning session, making the group the standout trade of the day. At midday, SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) was up about 15%, Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) up about 10%, SK hynix (NASDAQ:SKHY) up about 8%, and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) up about 6%.
The move is a sharp reclaim after a rough stretch. SanDisk entered the session down roughly 19.7% over the past month, and Western Digital was down roughly 18.3% over the past month and about 12.5% over the past week. Today the group is reclaiming that ground.
SanDisk Investor Day Reprices the Whole Group
The catalyst is SanDisk’s 2026 Investor Day, “Sandisk In Focus,” and the long-term financial model released alongside it. For fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030, management is targeting mid-to-high teens revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margins sustained at approximately 80%, non-GAAP operating margins of roughly 75%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin of about 50%. The company also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders after investing in the business.
An 80% gross margin sustained through fiscal 2030 is an extraordinary claim in NAND, an industry historically defined by brutal cyclicality. That is why one company’s investor day is lifting Micron, Western Digital, and SK hynix in sympathy. Investors are being asked to accept that memory economics have structurally changed.
The Mechanism: New Business Model Agreements
Management is anchoring the durability claim on its New Business Model agreements, built on committed volumes, enforceable contractual frameworks with minimum financial guarantees, and structured pricing mechanisms. SanDisk has signed NBMs with eight customers, representing approximately 50% of bits in FY2027 and about two-thirds of bits in FY2028.
CFO Luis Visoso framed the pitch: “We are optimizing for growth, sustainability and returns. As we do that, we expect to return 100 percent of excess cash to our shareholders after investing in the business.” CEO David Goeckeler added, “Our strong performance today is the direct result of disciplined execution against the strategy we outlined 18 months ago.” Management also flagged that the enterprise data center flash total addressable market is growing to 1.2 zettabytes by 2030, driven by AI inference workloads and KV cache reshaping the memory hierarchy.
Read-Across to Peers
Western Digital is the natural comparable after being separated from SanDisk, so a bullish long-term NAND margin framework reads directly across. Micron spans DRAM and NAND and is the primary US-listed way to play a broad memory cycle view. SK hynix is a critical HBM supplier for AI accelerators, though investors should note it is an ADS whose primary listing is the Korea Exchange, reporting in Korean Won under K-IFRS.
Today’s Move vs. Year to Date
| Stock | Today | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|
| SanDisk (SNDK) | +15% | +466.3% |
| Western Digital (WDC) | +10% | +163.8% |
| SK hynix (SKHY) | +8% | n/a (short US listing) |
| Micron (MU) | +6% | +219.5% |
All names are up big year-to-date, but just went through a whipsaw July that saw many memory stocks draw down dramatically. SanDisk’s margin commentary on its earnings call lead to a broad sell-off across the sapce, but today’s long-term view provides conviction that margins will stay elevated for longer than investors expected.
Risks Vs. Opportunities After Today’s Jump
An 80% gross margin held through fiscal 2030 remains a forecast rather than an achieved result restated: it is only a target. NAND has repeatedly punished investors who assumed the cycle was over. These are forward-looking non-GAAP targets without a full GAAP reconciliation available. And several of these names carry enormous year-to-date gains already, with SanDisk up 466.3% on the year.
Still, it’s worth noting that Wall Street expects normalized earnings of $213.23, $265.12, and $214.10 from SanDisk across the next three years. After today’s financial model was released, I would expect that today number ($214.10) to rise. So, from a forward perspective, SanDisk’s valuation isn’t outrageous as they’ll likely return about half their current value to shareholders across the coming three years.
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