How XRP Went From a Cycle Low to a Three-Month High in Four Days

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades around $1.50 after breaking through the $1.40 level that had rejected every rebound attempt since May. XRP rallied from its $0.9877 cycle low to $1.50 in four days , a 52% move that has taken the coin to its highest price in three months.

The ally has added more than $32 billion to XRP’s market cap. So how did XRP cover that much ground in four days, and can it hold the level?

How Much Did XRP Recover From Its Cycle Low?

The XRP price gained nearly 45% between its August 17 low of $0.9877 and $1.43 on August 21, and has since reached $1.50. At a circulating supply of about 63 billion tokens, that has taken XRP’s market cap from roughly $62 billion to $94.2 billion.

XRP had been pinned between $1.00 and $1.18 for most of August, unable to close above that band even once, so the break past $1.40 covered ground it had failed to cover in three weeks. XRP first cleared $1.00, the level that had capped it for most of the month, then pushed through $1.25 to $1.30, and finally broke $1.40 on August 21.

XRP’s 24-hour trading volume reached $10.39 billion on August 21 and stands at $12.73 billion today. That single session added around 17.18% to the XRP price, on top of the gains already locked in over the previous three days.

What Triggered XRP’s Four-Day Rally?

XRP is having one of the best four-day stretches in its history. Four catalysts, arriving at different points between August 17 and August 21, pushed the XRP price to a three-month high.

Bond Yields

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a 19-year high, which pressured risk assets like crypto. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then moved to calm markets on August 19 by doubling the pace of long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, starting September 9. Buying back bonds pulls supply off the market, which pushes bond prices up and yields down.

The 30-year yield fell to 5.19% within hours of the announcement. Lower yields make bonds less attractive next to riskier assets, which frees capital to rotate into cryptos like XRP.

Trump Backed the CLARITY Act

On August 20, President Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act while attending an event with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. The bill, which would classify XRP and most digital assets as commodities under federal law, had stalled in the Senate until Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion, the procedural step needed to force a vote, scheduled for September 15.

The market read the President’s comments as a sign the bill has executive support behind it heading into September. XRP added to its gains within hours, while prediction markets cut the odds they assign to another delay.

Whales and ETFs Bought Together

Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP added roughly 300 million tokens during the 96 hours leading into August 21, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. That purchase was worth close to $400 million at the time.

Meanwhile, XRP ETFs pulled in more than $39.78 million across four days, including a single-day inflow above $18 million on August 21, the largest one-day total in two months.

Both sets of buyers shrink the supply available to sell into the rally, so the same new demand pushes the XRP price further than it would if more coins were available.

Short Sellers Got Squeezed

Some traders borrow XRP, sell it immediately at the current price, and buy it back later at a cheaper one to pocket the difference, a trade called shorting that only pays off if the price falls. When the Treasury’s bond buyback news sent yields lower and XRP started rallying on August 19, those short sellers began losing money.

Once a trader’s loss crosses a set limit, the exchange closes the position automatically, and closing a short means buying the coin back immediately at whatever it costs. Across the three sessions between August 19 and 21, more than $3.3 billion of short positions closed out that way, adding to the buying already in the market.

Can XRP Hold Its Three-Month High?

We think XRP holds its three-month high until at least the September 15 cloture vote. Falling Treasury yields, a short squeeze that has already played out, and whales and ETFs shrinking the available exchange supply are enough to hold the $1.29 floor without any new catalyst.

The absence of a new catalyst also caps the upside. A large block of buyers entered near $1.48 on the way down and has been underwater since, and XRP has only just climbed back to that level. Holders who have waited months to get their money back tend to take it, which puts a wall of selling right where the price is now.

However, our view changes if Democrats vote down the cloture motion on September 15, or if a hot inflation report pushes Treasury yields back above 5.3%. Either event would break the $1.29 floor, and the XRP price could fall to $1.20.

XRP trades at $1.50, above $1.48, so those buyers are already in profit and the sentence no longer works. It now explains the mechanic instead of asserting it. A block of buyers entered near $1.48 on the way down and has been underwater since, XRP has only just climbed back to that level, and holders who have waited months to get their money back tend to take it. 

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