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CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD | CRWD Price Prediction) is expected to report Q2 FY27 results at 4:05 PM ET tonight, August 26. The report lands with the stock at $189.95, up 58.19% year to date after a sharp one-week pullback.
Momentum Meets a Tighter Bar
Last quarter delivered a record. Net new ARR hit $255.8 million, up 32% year over year, and total ARR reached $5.51 billion. Free cash flow came in at $468.5 million, or 34% of revenue, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 24% from 18% year over year.
Management raised the FY27 outlook, lifting net new ARR growth by 520 basis points to 27.7% at the midpoint. Sentiment shifted with it: CEO George Kurtz called Q1 “the Mythos moment,” framing Falcon as core AI security infrastructure. Shares completed a 4-for-1 split in July, drawing fresh retail attention just as the near-term chart softened.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q2 FY27 Guide |
YoY Change |
FY27 Guide |
Implied Growth |
| Revenue |
$1.436B to $1.442B |
23% |
$5.915B to $5.959B |
23% to 24% |
| Non-GAAP EPS |
$1.16 to $1.17 |
n/a |
$4.88 to $4.96 |
n/a |
| Net New ARR |
$284M to $286M |
28% to 29% |
$1.279B to $1.303B |
27% to 29% |
Revenue growth is expected to stabilize in the low-20s while net new ARR accelerates, a rare pairing that suggests the platform is landing larger deals with faster consumption. The FY27 non-GAAP EPS band implies operating leverage even as stock-based compensation stays elevated at $317.6 million.
AIDR, Flex, And Margin Signal Take Center Stage
Tonight, I’ll be watching five items closely:
- Net new ARR delivery. The bar is $284 million to $286 million. A visible beat validates the Mythos narrative; anything at the low end resets it.
- AIDR ramp. CEO Kurtz said AIDR ending ARR grew more than 250% sequentially, with a Q2 pipeline exceeding $50 million. Booked ARR versus pipeline is the tell.
- Falcon Flex depth. Flex accounts ended Q1 at more than $1.9 billion in ending ARR, growing 99% year over year. Investors will focus on Reflex uplift, last reported at 51% ARR uplift across 480 customers.
- FCF margin cadence. Management guided Q2 free cash flow margin to 24.5%, seasonally the lowest. I’ll track how that squares with the FY27 at least 30% target.
- Module adoption. Q1 hit 51% on 6+ modules and 25% on 8+. Higher attach rates support the consolidation thesis Kurtz keeps pitching.
Options positioning shows put open interest edging call open interest into the August 28 expiration (23,061 puts versus 21,488 calls), a mildly defensive tilt. Polymarket traders assign a 79.5% probability of an EPS beat.
Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
Day-Of Move |
One-Week Move |
Thirty-Day Move |
| Q1 FY27 |
+3.04% |
-3.81% |
-3.83% |
+6.31% |
| Q4 FY26 |
+1.56% |
+4.15% |
+8.43% |
-2.22% |
| Q3 FY26 |
+1.99% |
+1.48% |
-0.88% |
-12.56% |
| Q2 FY26 |
+12.05% |
+4.59% |
-5.51% |
+10.95% |
On average, shares moved 0.61% seven days after earnings across the last year of beats.
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