Tesla Is Worth Twenty-Five Times More Than Ford

Ford’s (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) stock has performed better this year than Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA). Tesla’s stock is down 22%. Ford’s is up 6%. While that is short of the S&P 500, which is up 12%, it is a strong performance for the No. 2 car company in the U.S.

What stock performance doesn’t show is that Ford’s market cap is only 4% of Tesla’s $1.38 trillion. It’s hard to fathom. In the minds of many investors, Tesla has an uncertain future. So does Ford, but Ford’s future is easier to guess.

Ford is the king of the SUV and full-sized pickup markets in the U.S. Its F-150 is routinely America’s top-selling vehicle. Most analyses put the F-150 among the most profitable vehicles on the market. It accounts for about 30% of Ford’s U.S. unit sales each month. It is part of Ford’s fleet, 90% of which is gas-powered. Ford does not sell EVs. Its hybrid sales are modest.

Ford’s gamble on the future is its Fathom mid-sized EV pickup. It is hard to see why Ford would re-enter the EV market with just one vehicle, which won’t be on the road until next year. Ford’s promotion for the Fathom is as much about Ford’s new manufacturing system as any single vehicle. No proof shows this system is any better than the current one.

Ford’s risks are twofold. One is that the American market will abandon gas-powered cars. Another is that tariffs on Chinese EVs will drop or go away. Even Ford admits this would be a catastrophe. Ford’s sales outside the U.S. are small, but that should already be baked into the stock price.

Broadly, Tesla’s risks appear much greater as EV sales in the U.S. have been falling. Its EV sales in the EU collapsed last year but have started to recover. In China, it is one of dozens of other EVs. And EV car sales in China are at cutthroat prices. Tesla’s car business, therefore,f is not very good.

So, Tesla’s investors have to bet on huge adoption of self-driving cars that are Teslas. The market has other self-driving technology from companies like Waymo that will probably be available across a number of manufacturers and models. Beyond that, there is the Robotaxi. It is too early to know if these business models will catch on.

Tesla’s biggest bet is on its Optimus robot. Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, says there is a market for hundreds of millions of these. That comes with a huge “maybe” and assumes that the market will not be flooded with scores of competitors.

The market cap difference does not make any sense.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.