Prediction: Webull Could Be One of Fintech’s Next Big Winners
Webull just posted its strongest quarter ever, but a closer look at the valuation math reveals a serious tension between the momentum trade and what the stock is actually worth right now.
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I’m going to start with the answer. Webull (NASDAQ:BULL | BULL Price Prediction) has staged a sharp recovery, with shares up 29.75% over the past month to $9.42. That rally has pushed the stock slightly ahead of where our proprietary model thinks fair value sits today.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Webull is $8.49, implying -9.82% downside over the next 12 months. That earns a hold rating at a 90% confidence level.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $9.42 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $8.49 |
| Upside/Downside | -9.82% |
| Recommendation | HOLD |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Why We Could Be Wrong
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits just below where Webull trades today, and the setup is genuinely divisive. Real upside could come from a full-year impact of the June 4 Pattern Day Trader rule elimination, which management is treating as a structural change in retail behavior.
The Pi Securities acquisition in Thailand also opens a large APAC funnel. Consider our target one datapoint among many. A detailed bull case follows below.
A Record Quarter Behind the Rally
Webull’s rebound is grounded in real numbers. Q2 26 revenue hit $198.83 million, up 51.21% year-over-year, beating estimates by 8.75%. GAAP EPS of $0.04 beat by 60%, and adjusted net income jumped to $43.2 million from $15.41 million a year earlier.
DARTs reached a record 1.6 million and customer assets grew 79% to $28.5 billion. Even so, the stock remains down 30.43% over the past year, so this rebound is off a depressed base.
Bull Case for $17+
Bulls have a clean story. CEO Anthony Denier called PDT elimination Webull’s “defining event for the quarter” and said “removal of PDT is the standard going forward.” Options volume hit 213 million contracts, up 68%, pushing Webull into the top five retail options brokers.
Layer in Vega AI’s 480,000 active users, the THB 200 billion AUM target in Thailand, and adjusted operating margin of 31.5%, and the bull scenario in our model reaches $17.64. Analyst commentary from Q3 25 cited $15-$18 price targets.
What Could Go Wrong
The bear case starts with dependence on payment-for-order-flow rebates, which drove $112.96 million of Q2 revenue. Any PFOF regulation would hit take rates directly.
Contra revenue also climbed to $12.4 million from $5.1 million YoY, and there are ongoing U.S. government inquiries related to China connections. Bulls would counter that Q1 26’s $21.72 million GAAP net loss reflected heavy marketing investment ($49.41 million) that has since normalized. Still, our bear scenario sees $7.16.
How Webull Compares to Robinhood and Interactive Brokers
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is the most direct comparable: a retail-first broker chasing the same active traders. Robinhood’s scale dwarfs Webull’s, with a $91.14 billion market cap, 28.4 million funded customers, Q2 26 revenue of $1.308 billion, and EPS of $0.62.
On a revenue-multiple basis, HOOD trades at a materially higher premium, which makes Webull’s $4.29 billion market cap look fairly valued given the growth gap.
Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) is the sophisticated-trader benchmark and the closest peer on customer profile. IBKR posted Q2 26 EPS of $0.69 on $1.90 billion revenue, with customer equity of $930.3 billion.
At a $40.9 billion market cap against consistently profitable earnings, IBKR sets a high bar. Webull is not close to that profitability profile, which is why our 24/7 Wall St. price target treats the current multiple as fair.
Hold for Now, With a Watchlist Trigger
My verdict: Hold, with the 24/7 Wall St. price target at $8.49 and 90% confidence. The single factor tipping the scale is valuation math on a forward EPS of just $0.08.
The bull thesis strengthens if Q3 26 shows sustained post-PDT DART levels above 1.6 million and margin expansion continues. The setup weakens if contra revenue keeps climbing or if PFOF regulation moves onto the SEC agenda.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $8.49 |
| 2027 | $8.81 |
| 2028 | $8.16 |
| 2029 | $8.17 |
| 2030 | $8.53 |
These projections assume Webull continues executing on its active-trader, AI, and international pillars. Significant upside could come from a full monetization cycle of the Pi Securities deal or a sustained lift in options take rates; significant downside would follow PFOF regulation or a China-related enforcement action.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
