The Next Growth Cycle Could Take Qualcomm to New Highs
Qualcomm's handset business is shrinking while its automotive and data center ambitions are scaling fast, and the tension between those two forces will determine whether the stock revisits its highs or stalls out entirely.
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Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) sits at an interesting crossroads. The handset business is under pressure, but the automotive, IoT, and data center pipeline is finally showing up in the numbers.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Qualcomm is $239.79, implying 35.45% upside from the current $176.88 quote. We rate the shares a buy with high conviction, 90% model confidence.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $176.88 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $239.79 |
| Upside | 35.45% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
Recent Action: Amazon Deal Reignites the AI Narrative
Qualcomm has recovered smartly. Shares are up 4.93% over the past week, 9.32% over the past month, and 13.62% over the past year, though the stock still sits well below its $257.56 52-week high.
Momentum accelerated after Qualcomm issued warrants to Amazon to acquire $4 billion worth of the chipmaker’s stock as part of an AI infrastructure deal, a validation of the data center strategy.
The Q3 FY26 report showed revenue of $9.947 billion (beating consensus) and non-GAAP EPS of $2.21, a narrow miss driven by memory and wafer input costs. Automotive posted 61% year-over-year growth to $1.588 billion, its 23rd consecutive double-digit growth quarter.
Bull Case: The Case for $253+
Our bull scenario points to $252.85. The catalyst stack is compelling. CEO Cristiano Amon has committed to “more than $24 billion in revenue across automotive and IoT plus more than $15 billion in data center” by fiscal 2029, nearly doubling the prior target.
Automotive is tracking to a $7 billion annualized run rate exiting FY26, boosted by an expanded BMW ADAS win. Two hyperscaler custom-silicon programs go revenue-generating this December quarter, and management expects non-handset growth to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to greater than 60% in fiscal 2027.
Layer in the Amazon warrant deal and the Modular acquisition, and the multi-year story becomes hard to ignore.
Bear Case: The Risks Worth Watching
Our bear-case path lands near $200.49. Handset revenue fell 20% in Q3, and management now expects Apple share on the upcoming iPhone launch to come in materially lower than our prior estimate of 20%, with roughly a 50% decline in Apple revenue from September to December quarter. Memory and wafer inflation compressed operating income by 41.13% year over year.
Bulls fairly counter that pricing actions are already in motion and management expects gross margins to realign to the 48% to 50% range once absorbed, and that fiscal 2027 non-handset growth is expected to replace the entire Apple product revenue within the year.
How Qualcomm Compares to Broadcom and Texas Instruments
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the aspirational AI-infrastructure benchmark. Broadcom posted $29.591 billion in Q3 FY26 revenue with AI semiconductor sales of $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year, and carries a $1.72 trillion market cap versus Qualcomm’s $188.9 billion.
AVGO shows what happens when hyperscaler custom silicon scales. Qualcomm is entering that same lane at a fraction of the valuation, making our target look conservative if execution follows.
Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) is the diversified analog and embedded counterweight. TXN grew Q2 2026 revenue 22.82% to $5.463 billion on industrial and automotive strength, at a $236 billion market cap.
TXN validates the automotive and industrial demand thesis Qualcomm is riding, while trading at a richer multiple. QCOM’s trailing P/E of 34 is not cheap, but relative to peers with similar end markets, the setup for multiple expansion is reasonable.
Qualcomm Price Prediction 2026-2030
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $239.79, a buy with 90% confidence. The tipping factor is the confirmed inflection in non-handset revenue and the Amazon-validated data center push.
I would be a buyer here if you believe Amon can execute on the $40 billion non-handset target by FY29. I would stay on the sidelines if you think memory-cost pressure and Apple modem attrition will overwhelm the transition through calendar 2027.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Qualcomm could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $187.31 |
| 2027 | $254.98 |
| 2028 | $312.49 |
| 2029 | $350.22 |
| 2030 | $387.58 |
These projections assume Qualcomm continues executing on its diversification strategy. Significant upside or downside could result from the pace of data center revenue scaling and the trajectory of premium handset demand (the same power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind that buildout are the subject of a free report we put together here: 7 stocks powering the AI boom that aren’t chipmakers).
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
