Eli Lilly Vs. Merck: One is a No-Brainer to Hold Through 2030
Eli Lilly and Merck both reported second quarter earnings, and the contrast could not be sharper. One company is compounding a franchise that keeps widening, while the other is racing to patch a hole before a patent cliff arrives.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY | LLY Price Prediction) and Merck (NYSE: MRK) both just posted second quarter results, and the split screen is telling. Lilly is compounding on an incretin franchise that keeps widening. Merck is racing to rebuild around a KEYTRUDA patent cliff. Same sector, radically different setups heading into 2030.
Incretins Do the Heavy Lifting. KEYTRUDA Starts to Plateau.
Lilly reported Q2 revenue of $22.97 billion, up 47.7% year over year, with Mounjaro at $9.94 billion (+91%) and Zepbound at $4.93 billion (+46%). Volume rose 60% while price fell 13%, which is the tradeoff you want when demand is this deep. CEO Dave Ricks said “Lilly’s momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance.”
Merck’s Q2 revenue landed at $16.6 billion, up 5%, with the KEYTRUDA family at $8.4 billion, growing just 4%. Management admitted U.S. KEYTRUDA growth will moderate as the drug reaches peak penetration. A $5.7 billion Terns acquisition charge pushed the company to a reported loss.
| Business Driver | Lilly | Merck |
| Main Growth Engine | Mounjaro and Zepbound | KEYTRUDA, plus new launches |
| Q2 Revenue Growth | 47.7% | 5% |
| Management Focus | Scaling supply | Diversifying beyond one drug |
Compounding Franchise vs. Portfolio Reconstruction
Lilly is layering assets onto a franchise that already works. Retatrutide showed weight loss “approaching bariatric surgery levels” in Phase 3, and orforglipron (branded Foundeo) is now the first once-daily oral GLP-1. Prescriber counts for Foundeo jumped from roughly 8,000 to 36,000 in one quarter. FDA also cleared Mounjaro for cardiovascular risk reduction in type 2 diabetes on August 28.
Merck’s strategy leans on offsets. Lipvendra, the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor, targets 30 million undertreated U.S. patients. WINREVAIR grew 75% to $588 million, and SAC-TMT hit Phase 3 in endometrial cancer. CEO Rob Davis frames the KEYTRUDA transition as “more of a hill than a cliff.” I want to believe him, but GARDASIL China stayed weak and three Phase 3 oncology trials missed. The rebuild is real. The timing remains the open question.
| Lens | Lilly | Merck |
| Forward P/E | 24 | 15 |
| Core Bet | Incretin dominance through 2030 | New launches replacing KEYTRUDA |
| Key Vulnerability | Novo Nordisk, capacity | KEYTRUDA loss of exclusivity |
What Decides the Next Two Years
For Lilly, I am watching the retatrutide BLA in Q1 2027, Foundeo’s global rollout, and whether the extra $4.5 billion in Indiana capacity keeps supply ahead of demand. For Merck, the tell is whether Lipvendra access builds fast enough and whether tulisokibart delivers a second UC readout to complete its filing package.
Why Lilly Looks Like the Cleaner Growth Story Through 2030
The setup favors Lilly on growth durability. The math is simple to me: a raised FY2026 guide of $85 to $87 billion in revenue, an 85.8% gross margin, and a pipeline stacked with retatrutide, orforglipron, and PCSK9 gene editing. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 24, a premium multiple that reflects the quality of the earnings growth. Merck at a forward P/E of 15 and a 2.29% yield fits a value or income investor better. If you want fewer surprises and a longer runway of durable growth, Lilly screens as the more durable growth profile.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
