Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) has whipsawed shareholders in 2026, but the setup heading into the second half looks compelling. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly is $1,336.12, implying 12.41% upside from the current $1,188.58 quote. We rate the stock a buy with high confidence, driven by the incretin franchise, a raised 2026 outlook, and the Foundayo launch.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1,188.58 |
| 24/7 Wall St. Price Target | $1,336.12 |
| Upside | 12.41% |
| Recommendation | BUY |
| Confidence Level | 90% |
The Q1 Blowout That Reset the Story
Lilly closed at $1,188.58 on July 10, off 2.09% for the week but up 10.97% year to date and 51.38% over the last year. Shares sit roughly 1% below the $1,249.45 52-week high and well above the $619.40 low.
Q1 2026 was the reset. Revenue landed at $19.80 billion, growing 55.5% year over year and beating consensus by 11.25%. Non-GAAP EPS of $8.55 cleared estimates by 25.88%. Mounjaro more than doubled to $8.66 billion, Zepbound grew 80%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $82.0 to $85.0 billion with EPS of $35.50 to $37.
Why Bulls See a Breakout Toward $1,395
The bull case rests on Foundayo. Orforglipron is the only approved GLP-1 pill that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions, and it delivered superior blood sugar and weight loss versus oral semaglutide in a head-to-head Phase 3 trial published in The Lancet.
Pair that with retatrutide’s Phase 3 win, Taltz plus Zepbound in psoriasis, and four bolt-on acquisitions announced in Q1, and the pipeline looks stacked. Our bull scenario models a $1,395.55 price a year out, a 17.41% return.
The Risks Worth Watching
Prices are the pressure point. Realized prices fell 13% in Q1 as rebates, cash-pay cuts on Zepbound, and China’s NRDL listing for Mounjaro reset the curve. Q1 also absorbed $584 million in acquired IPR&D charges and $279 million in litigation-related items. Insider activity has skewed toward selling, and composite prediction sentiment sits at 38.89, tilted bearish.
Lilly is investing aggressively behind those charges, with new manufacturing sites and four acquisitions targeting cell therapy, sleep-wake disorders, in vivo CAR-T, and myelofibrosis. Our bear scenario points to $1,102.52, a 7.24% drawdown.
How Lilly Compares to Novo Nordisk and Merck
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is the natural GLP-1 comp. Novo trades at a forward P/E of just 15, versus Lilly’s 33, but Novo’s revenue grew only 24% last quarter against Lilly’s 55.5%. That growth gap explains why the market underwrites Lilly’s premium.
Merck (NYSE:MRK) offers a large-cap pharma counterpoint. Merck trades at a forward P/E near 24 with quarterly revenue growth of just 4.9% and earnings that contracted year over year. Lilly’s growth rate is roughly ten times Merck’s, making the higher multiple defensible. Against this peer set, our $1,336.12 target looks reasonable.
Eli Lilly Price Prediction 2026-2030
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,336.12 and buy rating carry 90% confidence. Growth acceleration tips the scale. The bull path hinges on Foundayo scripts ramping as expected and 2026 EPS landing at the high end of the raised $35.50 to $37 range. The setup weakens if realized price declines widen beyond the current 13% drag or a pharma tariff surprise reprices the sector.
Extending our model out, here is where our projects Lilly could trade, assuming Foundayo scales and incretin growth normalizes into the high teens.
| Year | 24/7 Wall St. Price Target |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,336 |
| 2027 | $1,455 |
| 2028 | $1,570 |
| 2029 | $1,675 |
| 2030 | $1,778 |
These projections assume Lilly continues executing on the incretin buildout and pipeline diversification. Meaningful upside or downside could come from oral GLP-1 penetration, tariff outcomes, or biosimilar timing.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
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