Prediction: Eli Lilly’s Next Growth Wave Could Surprise Investors

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) is $1,400.55 over the next 12 months. With shares at $1,168.45, that points to 19.86% upside. Our model rates the stock a buy with high confidence.

A 90% confidence reading means the inputs agree with each other: earnings are growing fast, analysts are overwhelmingly positive, and the valuation checks line up.

Lilly is growing faster than any other mega-cap drugmaker. Its incretin franchise keeps getting bigger, and retatrutide gives it a second act. The main question is how long that growth lasts.

Record Growth Meets a Late-Summer Pullback

Shares rose 1.35% this week but slipped 1.76% over the past month. They are up 8.73% year to date and 61.27% over one year. The stock sits 9.61% below its 52-week high of $1,292.65.

In the second-quarter earnings report, revenue came in at $22.97 billion, up 47.67% and ahead of the $20.69 billion estimate. EPS of $8.38 beat expectations of $6.58.

Mounjaro grew 91% to $9.94 billion, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion. Since then, the FDA has approved Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk (August 28) and cleared the once-weekly insulin Onswik (September 24).

Why Bulls See Retatrutide as the Next Leg

Lilly plans to file for U.S. approval of retatrutide in Q1 2027. In trials, weight loss at the highest doses neared “bariatric surgery levels”. The oral drug Foundayo went from about 8,000 prescribers to 36,000, and Medicare’s GLP-1 Bridge Program expanded U.S. obesity coverage by 35%.

Analysts have raised 2027 EPS estimates 19 times over the past 30 days, bringing the consensus to $47.3443. 24 analysts are bullish on the stock. Investor Ken Langone recently floated a much higher multi-year value. In our bull case, shares reach $1,460.

Pricing Erosion Could Cap the Rally

Excluding rebate changes, U.S. prices fell 9%. Revenue also depends heavily on Mounjaro and Zepbound. Reported earnings took a hit from $2.78 billion in IPR&D charges (costs linked to acquired research projects), and the tax rate rose to 23.3%.

Still, those charges bought pipeline assets, and management expects higher volumes to make up for lower prices. The bear case of $1,172.51 has shares about flat.

How Lilly Compares to Novo Nordisk and Merck

Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is Lilly’s direct GLP-1 rival. Its quarterly earnings fell 20.6% year over year. That shows what happens to a GLP-1 maker’s valuation when growth stalls, and it explains why investors pay a premium for Lilly.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) is a large-cap pharma stock valued as a steady grower. It has a consensus target of $153.65 and single-digit growth. Lilly trades at a higher forward P/E than both peers, but it is growing about ten times faster. On that basis, our 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable.

Growth Justifies the Premium

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1,400.55 takes a buy rating at 90% confidence. What tips the balance is how fast earnings estimates are rising.

I would grow more confident if retatrutide’s filing stays on schedule and Foundayo keeps gaining prescribers. My view would weaken if U.S. price declines start to outpace volume growth. For now, the numbers support Lilly.

Lilly needs to keep executing on its incretin franchise and pipeline for these projections to hold. A retatrutide approval could push results higher, while sharper government pricing pressure could pull them lower.

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