Boeing Crashes Again: One Prominent Analyst Reiterated His Call for 55% Gains Within a Year
Boeing's CEO just admitted the 737 MAX ramp is taking longer than promised, sending shares sliding again, yet one prominent analyst refuses to budge on a price target that dwarfs anything else in US aerospace.
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Shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA | BA Price Prediction) trade at $197.05, while the average Wall Street price target sits at $274.85, implying roughly 39% of upside if analysts prove correct.
Boeing designs commercial jets, defense platforms, satellites, and rockets. Wall Street is tracking CEO Kelly Ortberg’s turnaround to see if the company can convert its record $597 billion commercial backlog into cash. One prominent bull has doubled down with a call implying 55% gains within a year.
737 MAX Ramp Slowdown Sinks Shares Again
The immediate catalyst was Ortberg himself. Speaking at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, he told investors that stabilizing 737 MAX output is taking “a little bit longer” than expected. Shares slid 2.43% in the most recent session and are now down 11.66% over the past month.
The walk-back stings because the 2026 bull case hinges on Boeing holding 47 airplanes per month on the 737 line, then stepping to 52 and beyond. Management had told analysts in July it saw no supply-chain constraints preventing rate 52. The stock now trades below its 50-day moving average of $217.30 and its 200-day average of $221.10.
This is the third stumble in a year of messy quarters, including a Q2 2026 core EPS loss of $0.76 that missed consensus badly and a $280 million charge on the VC-25B presidential aircraft program.
Why 28 Analysts Still Believe, and Tigress Sees 55% Upside
Coverage skews decisively bullish. Alpha Vantage tallies 5 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 5 Hold, and 0 Sell ratings, with an average target of $274.85. The Street-high number belongs to Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial, who reiterated a Buy rating and a $305 price target, implying roughly 55% upside within 12 months. That comfortably clears the 40% threshold, which puts the bull case at the center of this story.
Feinseth’s thesis rests on three pillars: an unprecedented commercial backlog valued at over $400 billion providing deep revenue visibility; a free-cash-flow inflection as production stabilizes, with CFO Jay Malabe telling analysts that $10 billion of annual free cash flow is “very attainable”; and defense resilience anchored by an $85 billion BDS backlog and rising munitions and tanker demand.
Near-term earnings remain ugly. Consensus for 2026 EPS is -$1.0752, with 18 downward revisions in the trailing 30 days against just 2 upward. The thesis is a 2027 story: consensus models $4.1208 in EPS and revenue climbing to roughly $112.8 billion. The 737-7 and 737-10 certifications and the first 777X delivery, all targeted for 2027, are the catalysts investors are watching.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) trades at $538.09 against a $640.22 consensus target for roughly 19% upside. Shares fell 11.4% over the past month yet remain up 11.3% YTD. Coverage is neutral, with 7 buy-side ratings, 13 Holds, and 1 Sell.
RTX (NYSE:RTX) sits at $193.54 versus a $234.82 target, or about 21% upside. The stock dropped 14.2% over the past month yet holds a 5.5% YTD gain, with coverage tilting bullish at 15 Buys and 8 Holds.
General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) trades at $355.95 against a $422.30 target, roughly 19% upside. Shares fell 9.5% in a month yet still show a 5.7% YTD gain.
The largest analyst-implied upside in the group sits with Boeing, at 39% to consensus and 55% to the Tigress high case. Wall Street is framing Boeing as the deepest value in US aerospace.
Numbers Behind the Dislocation
Boeing trades at $197.05 with an average target of $274.85 across 28 covering analysts. Shares are down 9.24% year to date. Over the same period the S&P 500 is up 11.85%, leaving Boeing more than 20 percentage points behind the broad market.
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 18
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
My Take: A Turnaround Priced for Doubt
The bull case works if Ortberg walks the 737 line to 52 per month during 2027, the 777X takes its first delivery on schedule, and free cash flow inflects toward the $10 billion figure management has flagged. In that scenario, Tigress’s $305 target is what an aerospace duopolist on normalized cash flow should fetch.
The bear case builds if the September commentary signals another rate-cadence miss, if VC-25B and 777X charges keep eating quarterly earnings, or if SPIA engineering labor talks produce a work stoppage.
On balance, lean cautiously constructive. The 39% consensus gap and 55% Tigress case reward patience if the 2027 catalysts land. Investors expecting a quick bounce are likely frustrated. This stock needs two clean quarters before Wall Street re-rates the multiple.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
