Netflix Just Keeps Falling: Here’s Why One Wall Street Pro Remains Resolute That 90% Await Today’s Buyers
Netflix has shed more than 40% in a year while one top Wall Street analyst holds a target that towers above the crowd. The question is whether the bull case rests on a real inflection or wishful thinking about ads…
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Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) is priced at $70.30. Wall Street’s average price target is $92.93, which puts the stock about 32.19% below where analysts think it belongs.
Netflix is the world’s largest subscription streamer with an audience approaching “a billion people”. Investors now judge the company on advertising, live events, and pricing power, all three growing despite the stock’s slide.
The gap is widest at the top of the Street. BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz holds the Street-high $135.00 target and an Outperform rating. That target implies roughly 92.03% upside, far past the 40% mark where a target becomes a strong statement of conviction.
Slowing Engagement Has Dragged Netflix Toward Its 52-Week Low
The core worry is engagement growth lagging rising content costs. View hours grew just 2% in the first half of 2026, while content expense is set to rise about 10% this year.
Q2 revenue of $12.56B missed expectations of $12.58B. EPS of $0.80 came in just above the $0.79 estimate. Free cash flow fell to $1.53B from $2.27B. In Q1, EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.34 estimate.
Shares are down 41.73% over the past year and 13.97% in the last month. The stock sits near its 52-week low of $65.08, far from the $124.86 high.
BMO’s $135 Case Rests on Ads, Mindshare and Live Events
BMO’s first focus is ad-tier growth. Pitz expects the ad-supported tier to drive net additions while generating high-margin advertising revenue per user. Management says the pricing gap between the ad tier and the standard plan “is narrowing,” and expects ad revenue to roughly double to about $3B this year.
The second focus is mindshare. BMO’s survey shows roughly 75% US consumer penetration, with Netflix ranked as the most preferred streaming platform. The third focus is live content. Six of the top 10 new-member sign-up days over the past five years came from live events, though live programming accounts for only 1% of view hours.
Of 51 analysts, 7 rate Netflix Strong Buy, 28 Buy and 16 Hold, with zero Sells. The 2026 EPS estimate has slipped to $3.5836 from $3.5921 90 days ago.
Third-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $12.86B and EPS of $0.82. Netflix bought back $4.7B of stock in Q2 with $27.1B in authorization remaining.
Netflix Fell Much Harder Than Its Streaming Rivals
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) trades at $105.47, down 6.63% year to date. Its average target of $126.61 implies 20.04% upside. Analysts are firmly bullish, with 6 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 2 Hold and 1 Sell. Even so, Wall Street sees less upside in Disney than in Netflix.
Netflix Has Badly Lagged the S&P 500 This Year
At $70.30, Netflix sits 32.19% below the $92.93 consensus target, based on coverage from 51 analysts. It also trades below both its 50-day moving average of $75.54 and its 200-day moving average of $84.58.
Netflix is down 25.02% year to date versus the S&P 500’s 12.08% gain. Over one year, Netflix has fallen 41.73% against the index’s 15.16% gain. At a forward P/E of about 19, the stock is priced for slower growth than its 13.4% revenue expansion suggests.
Ad Revenue Has to Carry the Netflix Rebound
Netflix’s upside depends on advertising closing the pricing gap and the 2026 ad revenue target holding, coupled with steady pricing gains and cash flow recovery toward the roughly $12.5B full-year guide. Risks include flat engagement while content costs rise, the ad market softens, and estimates drift lower.
The consensus target is more credible than BMO’s $135.00 call. Third-quarter results will show which case the market prices.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
