Micron Blew Past Estimates and Says It Can’t See When the Memory Shortage Ends
Micron just posted its eighth straight earnings beat and a stock gain that tops 270% for the year, yet the CEO openly admits he cannot see when the memory shortage ends. That combination of record results and blurry visibility raises…
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Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion after the close on September 30, 2026. That beat the $50.972 billion consensus, and the stock barely moved.
Shares finished the regular session at $1,065.11, flat at 0%. That calm follows a 273.42% year-to-date gain, so much of the good news was already priced in.
The more important news came on the conference call, where Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said: “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.” Memory prices have historically risen and fallen in sharp cycles, but Mehrotra is describing a shortage with no visible end, and his guidance supports that.
A Quarter That Beat Wall Street and Micron’s Own Forecast
Micron said revenue grew 379% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share of $33.42 exceeded the $31.3542 consensus estimate for an eighth straight beat.
Micron Technology said gross margin reached 87%, above Micron’s prior forecast of roughly 86%. Margins that high suggest strong pricing power.
Micron guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and adjusted earnings per share to $38.15, plus or minus $1.00. Consensus was about $57 billion and about $35.14.
All of fiscal 2026 produced $133.188 billion in revenue and $75.52 in adjusted earnings per share. Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said the first quarter should be the floor for gross margin in fiscal 2027.
Why Memory Supply Stays Tight Through 2028
High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, stacks DRAM chips vertically beside an AI processor so data arrives fast enough to keep the chip working. Without it, an expensive accelerator waits on data.
Mehrotra said conditions will be “much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028.” He said, “More than 75% of our output is already committed for 2027.”
On HBM, Mehrotra said, “A large part of the volume is already sold out for 2027… and the prices are much higher than 2026.” Micron’s 26 strategic customer agreements all carry take-or-pay volumes, meaning customers pay whether or not they take delivery.
What Investors Are Worried About Instead
Micron plans about $11.5 billion in fiscal first-quarter capital spending and about $25 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027. Heavy spending could pressure returns if demand cools off.
Micron bought back $650 million of stock in fiscal 2026, against $33.199 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter. Murphy said excess cash will be returned “primarily through share repurchase” once Micron reaches its target cash level, expected by the end of fiscal Q1.
What Comes Next for Micron Stock
Micron’s outlook looks stronger after this report. Committed output, guidance above consensus, and a $68.3 billion net cash balance give earnings unusual visibility.
New supply arrives slowly. Most of the added spending goes to clean rooms opening from late calendar 2028.
The case breaks if customers trim orders or Micron cuts its outlook. Watch whether Micron announces the new buyback authorization Murphy promised before increased returns begin on December 9, 2026, and whether fiscal first-quarter revenue lands within guidance.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
