Live Live update #15

Constellation Brands Maintains FY2027 Guidance on Q2 Earnings Beat

STZ
Constellation Brands

Q2 2027


EPS
$3.74
est $3.55
+5.3%

Revenue
$2.63B
est $2.54B
+3.7%

A fourth straight quarter of beating EPS estimates, powered by 5.5% beer shipment volume growth and a Wine and Spirits segment that swung to an operating profit from a year-ago loss. Management reaffirmed comparable fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90, a firmer footing for a stock that has been trading near 52-week lows.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Newest first
Thomas Richmond

That wraps up our initial coverage of Constellation Brands’ Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Tune in to the company’s earnings call tomorrow, October 7, at 8 AM ET for more updates.

Thomas Richmond
THE WIRE
4:10pm ET

Make it six beats in seven quarters: the $3.74 adjusted EPS comes in above expectations of $3.55, a wider margin than the 6.9% surprise management delivered in Q1 FY2027. The management credibility question now shifts to the FY2027 guidance range of $11.20 to $11.90, which straddles the $11.71 Street number.

Thomas Richmond

While beer gets most of the attention, Constellation’s Wine & Spirits segment delivered arguably the quarter’s biggest turnaround.

Revenue soared 17% to $159.4 million, depletions jumped 10.2%, and shipments climbed 15.4%.

More importantly, the segment swung from a $19.8 million operating loss last year to a $6.1 million profit this quarter. Mi CAMPO depletions soared roughly 51%, while Kim Crawford grew around 11%.

It’s still a small piece of Constellation, but the turnaround is finally showing up in the numbers.

Thomas Richmond

Constellation’s Beer operating income rose just 1% to $964.2 million despite 5% sales growth, while operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 39.0%.

And the second half of the year could get tougher.

Management expects beer operating margins of just 34.5% to 35.5% in H2, with Q3 marketing spending set to exceed 11% of sales.

That helps explain why Constellation stock is down 5% after Q2 earnings despite an earnings beat.

Thomas Richmond

Constellation Brands beat expectations in Q2, but the numbers underneath its beer business were more mixed.

Beer revenue rose 5% to $2.47 billion as shipments jumped 5.5%, yet consumer depletions actually fell 0.6%.

The weakness hit Constellation’s two biggest names, Modelo and Corona. Modelo Especial depletions fell roughly 2% while Corona Extra dropped about 5%.

Pacifico was the standout, growing roughly 19%, but Constellation will need its flagship brands to stabilize if beer growth is going to accelerate from here.

Thomas Richmond

Constellation Brands just reported Q2 earnings, with shares initially flat following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $2.63B vs. $2.54B expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $3.74 vs. $3.55 expected

Guidance:

  • FY2027 Adjusted EPS: $11.20–$11.90 vs. $11.71 expected
  • Organic Revenue Growth: -1% to +1%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin: 32%–33%
  • Free Cash Flow: $1.6B–$1.7B

Quick Read:

  • Constellation beat on both lines, with revenue 3.5% above estimates and adjusted EPS beating by 5.4%.
  • Beer revenue grew 5%, but depletions fell 0.6% and beer operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 39.0%.
  • Management reaffirmed its FY2027 outlook, including adjusted EPS of $11.20–$11.90.
Thomas Richmond

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Constellation Brands to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Technical setup

3:02pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Tue, Oct 6
  • R2$139.06+19.8%
  • R1$135.84+17.1%
  • Now$116.05
  • S1$111.54-3.9%
50-day avg
$126.41-8.2% below
200-day avg
$142.98-18.8% below
52-week range
$110.60 – $168.60

At $116.05, $STZ stock sits less than $6 above its $110.60 52-week low, so the $111.54 support line matters tonight. Reclaiming anything meaningful means a long climb back to the $126.41 50-day average, with the $135.84 resistance shelf well above that.

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Tracked 13F positioning

3:10pm ET

$836Macross 11 tracked filers
6 added · 2 trimmed · 2 new · 3 exited

  • Point72 Asset Management LP

    $343M+0.3%

  • Balyasny Asset Management LP

    $185M-0.4%

  • Millennium Management LLC

    $136M+3.0%

  • Marshall Wace LLP

    $123M—

  • Gotham Asset Management LLC

    $20M-0.5%

  • Tudor Investment Corp

    $11M—

  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc

    $7M+0.9%

  • Two Sigma Investments LLC

    $4MNew

+ 6 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Six hedge funds added to Constellation Brands while just two trimmed, per positions disclosed as of the June 30 quarter-end, so roughly 45 days stale and well before tonight's earnings report. Point72 Asset Management carried the largest stake in that group, though three hedge funds exited entirely.

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Balance sheet · Q3 2024 – Q2 2026

3:20pm ET

$10.44BNet debt
Cash $97M · Debt $10.53B · Equity $8.26B · Current ratio 0.91×

Constellation Brands carries roughly $10.5 billion in debt against $97 million of cash as of Q2 FY2026, so free cash flow will likely go to lenders and share buybacks before anything else. Debt has come down about $1.6 billion from the Q3 FY2024 peak, and equity keeps building, but with the current ratio back below 1, a soft beer quarter leaves little slack for management to lean on.

Net cash by quarter

$-10B$-11B$-12B

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Options positioning

2:11pm ET

Put/call 0.46Calls dominant
CallsPuts

ATM implied vol
63%
Expiry
Fri, Oct 9chain as of Mon, Oct 5

Call positioning dominates ahead of tonight's earnings report. A 0.46 put/call ratio means calls outnumber puts more than two to one, with the heaviest call open interest stacked at the 116 strike just above the 114 at-the-money line. That skew sits on a stock already beaten down, and 63% at-the-money implied volatility on Friday expiry says a large move is priced in.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $111

    5 / 2

  • $112

    217 / 39

  • $113

    220 / 73

  • $114

    27 / 46

  • $115

    111 / 82

  • $116

    102 / 119

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Last quarter — Q1 FY2027

2:06pm ET

EPS
$3.43vs $3.21 est +6.9%
Revenue
$2.43Bvs $2.39B est +1.7%

Constellation Brands cleared both lines in Q1 FY2027, proof that cost discipline can carry the quarter even when beer demand stays soft. The problem is that the stock is down about 20% since then, so tonight's report has to show depletion trends stabilizing.

next print Tue, Oct 6

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Earnings preview · Q2 FY2027

1:56pm ET

Reports
Tue, Oct 6After close
Consensus EPS
$3.55
Consensus revenue
$2.54B

A $19.7 billion market cap puts a steep discount on Constellation Brands, so tonight's earnings report has to show Modelo and Corona depletions stabilizing. Constellation Brands has cleared the bar in five of its last six quarters, and the stock rose after each of the last three, which raises the cost of a stumble here.

What to watch
  • Beer depletion trends and whether shipments still lag sell-through
  • Operating margin guidance for the beer segment
  • Any update to the full-year fiscal 2027 outlook
  • Wine and spirits divestiture progress
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 5 of last 6
  • Q4 FY2025

    +15.9%

  • Q1 FY2026

    -2.1%

  • Q2 FY2026

    +9.3%

  • Q3 FY2026

    +15.9%

  • Q4 FY2026

    +11.1%

  • Q1 FY2027

    +6.9%

Earnings-day stock move · last 3 reports
  • Q2 FY2026

    +1.0%

  • Q3 FY2026

    +5.3%

  • Q4 FY2026

    +8.5%

Thomas Richmond
STZ
Constellation Brands

Call preview · Q2 FY2027

2:02pm ET

Tue, Oct 6
Earnings call · after close

Analysts pressed management on beer operating margins and depletion trends on three straight earnings calls, and the Hispanic consumer slowdown sits underneath both. Whether depletions stabilized is the answer most likely to set the after-hours move on tonight's 4:05 PM ET report, with Veracruz capacity spending and Corona and Modelo brand commentary close behind.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls
Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
  • Beer operating margins & targets
  • Beer volume & depletion trends
  • Hispanic consumer & macro headwinds
  • CAPEX & Veracruz capacity expansion
  • Corona & Modelo brand performance
  • Beer distribution & inventory levels
Thomas Richmond

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) reports fiscal Q2 earnings at 4:05 PM ET today, with Wall Street expecting roughly $3.55 per share. That would be below the $3.63 reported a year ago, while estimates have been trending lower ahead of the print.

Expectations are already low. Constellation shares have been under pressure heading into earnings as investors worry about softer beer demand and margin pressure.

Management has also warned of higher costs, while its current full-year outlook calls for beer sales ranging from a 1% decline to 1% growth and beer operating margins of 37% to 38%.

That makes tonight’s report an important test of whether bad news is finally priced in. Constellation now trades at roughly 11 times trailing earnings and carries a dividend yield around 3.6% and free cash flow yield near 9.5%.

If Modelo and the broader beer portfolio show signs of stabilization while margins hold up, even a modestly positive report could give investors a reason to reconsider the stock’s depressed valuation.

View the full live blog (16 updates) →