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Nvidia Turned $10,000 Into More Than $1.3 Million. Can It Happen Again?

A $10,000 bet on Nvidia a decade ago quietly became a life-changing sum, but with a $5.57 trillion market cap, the same math no longer applies the same way. Here is how much runway our model still sees.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published October 6, 2026, 9:30am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

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A detailed, angled close-up of a dark grey Nvidia microchip with gold connector pins, glowing green, floating slightly above a dark grey circuit board also bearing a green Nvidia logo. Streams of glowing green particles emanate from beneath the floating chip, curving upwards and to the right against a dark background, suggesting data or energy flow. The circuit board features various metallic and dark components with intricate electronic traces.
An Nvidia semiconductor chip illuminates a circuit board, symbolizing the advanced technology at the heart of the artificial intelligence revolution. Its crucial role highlights the intricate connection between high-tech processing and critical material supply chains, such as gallium. © Shutterstock

Ten years ago, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) traded at a split-adjusted $1.68. At the September 30, 2026 close it stood at $228.38. That is a gain of 13,499.21%, enough to turn $10,000 into $1,359,921.

Doing that again from a market cap of about $5.57 trillion is a much bigger ask, so the useful question is how much growth is still left.

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for NVIDIA is $271.01 over the next 12 months. That works out to 17.49% upside, with high confidence.

An infographic titled 'NVIDIA (NVDA) 12-Month Price Prediction' with a 24/7 Wall St. logo. The top section, 'The Call', displays the current price of $230.66, a target price of $271.01, a +17.49% increase, and a 'BUY' recommendation with 90% High Confidence. The 'How We Got There' section uses a bar chart showing Forward P/E-Based at $185.74 (50%) and Analyst Consensus at $327.7 (30%), leading to a Weighted Base Price of $237.31. 'Our Adjustments' shows a bar representing the Weighted Base Price of $237.31, adjusted by a 247Factor (+14.2%) to reach the Final Price Target of $271.01. The 'Bull Case' section lists 'Vera Rubin Ramp', 'Fiscal 2028 Revenue Growth (~70%)', and 'Hyperscaler Capex ($1.3T in 2027)', with a Bull Case Target of $315.99. The 'Bear Case' section lists 'Gross Margin Pressure (71-72% Q4)', 'Supply Obligations ($279B)', and 'No China Data Center Compute Revenue', with a Bear Case Target of $233.96. The bottom line reiterates a 'BUY' recommendation for NVIDIA, with current $230.66 and target $271.01 (+17.49%), and a summary statement about estimate revisions and strong earnings momentum driving the positive outlook.
24/7 Wall St.
Metric Value
Current Price $230.66
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. $271.01
Upside/Downside 17.49%
Recommendation BUY
Confidence Level 90%

Our model rates the stock a buy, and the reason is earnings momentum. NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates for the 5th straight quarter. Over the past 30 days, analysts have raised the fiscal 2028 EPS consensus from $13.1277 to $15.6826.

NVDA price scenario

Vera Rubin Ramp Pushes NVIDIA Toward Its 52-Week High

The stock is up 2.33% over the past week, 4.64% over the past month and 24.02% year to date. It sits 2.2% below its 52-week high of $236 and 40.8% off its low of $163.9.

Fiscal Q2 revenue came in at $96.22 billion, up 105.8% and ahead of the $92.07 billion consensus. EPS of $2.22 exceeded the $2.09 estimate. Q3 guidance calls for $108 billion. NVIDIA also returned $26 billion to shareholders and has $99 billion left on its buyback authorization, and the repurchases are drawing mainstream attention.

NVDA price target

Why Bulls See $316 or More

The bull case reaches $315.99. Management expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow about 70% and calls that outlook supply-constrained. Vera Rubin brings in roughly $40 billion per gigawatt, compared with $25 billion for Blackwell.

NVIDIA also expects top-five hyperscaler capex to reach $1.3 trillion in 2027 (the power, cooling, and networking suppliers riding that same wave are the subject of a free report we put together here). The stock has firm Wall Street support, with 9 Strong Buy ratings, 48 Buys and just 1 Sell.

NVDA analyst ratings

Margin Squeeze and $279 Billion in Commitments Could Cap Gains

Our bear case is $233.96. Gross margin is expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4 as memory costs rise. Supply obligations have reached $279 billion, and guidance assumes no China data center compute revenue. NVIDIA’s balance-sheet support for AI labs also draws criticism as circular financing.

On the other side, the margin pressure comes from component costs, and pricing power is holding up. Fiscal 2028 margins of 72% to 73% would still rank among the best in the industry.

How NVIDIA Compares to Its Rivals

Company Forward P/E Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY)
NVIDIA 25x 105.9%
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) 40x 50.1%
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) 19x 85.5%

AMD is NVIDIA’s most direct rival in data center GPUs. AMD trades at a higher forward multiple even though its revenue is growing at less than half NVIDIA’s pace. That gap suggests investors give NVIDIA too little credit for its lead.

Broadcom makes the custom chips that AI labs are considering as GPU alternatives. Its multiple is cheaper, but its operating margin of 54.3% trails NVIDIA’s 66.2%. Compared with both peers, the 24/7 Wall St. price target looks reasonable and even conservative.

NVIDIA Price Prediction 2026-2030

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $271.01 carries a buy rating and 90% confidence. Estimate revisions keep rising, which tips the scale for me.

The bull case improves if Vera Rubin launches on schedule and Q4 margins hold at the low end of guidance. The outlook damps if supply commitments start to exceed orders. Even so, the data favors the bulls.

Year Price Target from 24/7 Wall St.
2026 $233.87
2027 $289.46
2028 $314.45
2029 $344.29
2030 $379.02

NVIDIA would need to keep executing on its current strategy for these projections to hold. Real upside or downside could come from relieving supply constraints or a slowdown in hyperscaler spending.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

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