SpaceX Gains 2% as Morgan Stanley Sees a Closing Window; AST SpaceMobile Surges 8%, Rocket Lab Rises 5%

Morgan Stanley’s case that Wall Street is underpricing the compute side of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) is lifting the whole commercial space group, and the biggest gains are showing up outside the company at the center of the note. SpaceX stock is at $174.67, up 2% in morning trading, the smallest advance among the three space names in focus.

Also, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is at $63.34, up 8%, the biggest gain of the group. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is at $76.31, up 5%, landing in the middle of the pack.

For a sector-wide read, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO), a fund that counts all three names among its holdings, is up 2%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.6%, a much softer gain for the broad market. Space stocks are drawing buying that runs well ahead of large-cap equities as a whole.

Morgan Stanley Flags a Narrow Window for SpaceX

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas repeated an Outperform rating on SpaceX stock with a $300 price target, arguing that investors have only a few weeks to act before the next Starship test flight. That Morgan Stanley note landed in the prior session, and the rally in SpaceX stock has carried into this one. Jonas built his case on a sum-of-the-parts argument, which values each SpaceX business separately and then adds those figures together.

In that framework, the market fully values the launch and satellite connectivity businesses at SpaceX while assigning little or nothing to the compute and chipmaking side. Jonas also argued that few investors can judge the testing path on a reusable upper stage or forecast compute pricing, which keeps many out.

AST SpaceMobile Leads on a Different Business Model

AST SpaceMobile is building a direct-to-device satellite network that connects ordinary mobile phones, putting it up against the Starlink side of SpaceX rather than the launch franchise behind the Morgan Stanley note. Posting the smallest gain of the three, SpaceX stock cuts against reading the move as a SpaceX-specific revaluation and points to the space complex rising together.

Late September delivered the milestone that frames the Morgan Stanley timeline, as SpaceX reached low Earth orbit for the first time on a Starship test flight and deployed Starlink satellites on that mission. SpaceX stock is up 18% over the past month, a stretch that includes that flight.

What to Watch Next

For SpaceX stock, the next catalyst is the upcoming Starship test flight, since the window argument from Jonas depends on that milestone landing on schedule. A slip could drain urgency from the Morgan Stanley case on SpaceX, while a clean flight could lend weight to the sum-of-the-parts view. A confirmed date for the next SpaceX Starship test is worth watching.

AST SpaceMobile stock and Rocket Lab stock are rising on enthusiasm triggered by a note about SpaceX. The focus shifts to whether AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab shares hold their gains once attention on the SpaceX call passes.

If the space-stock rally rests on one analyst’s thesis and a SpaceX test flight that’s still ahead, this leaves room for big price swings in either direction. Investors weighing their exposure should adjust their holdings carefully given how quickly AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and SpaceX shares can wobble on sentiment alone.

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