Verizon or AT&T: If I Had to Trust 1 of These Yields for the Next Decade, This Is It

Verizon (NYSE:VZ | VZ Price Prediction) orAT&T (NYSE:T): Which yield can you trust to keep paying, and growing, for the next decade? I pick Verizon, and the gap between the two is wider than the reported yields suggest.

At recent prices of $45.40 and $24.11, Verizon’s $2.83 annualized dividend yields about 6.2%, while AT&T’s $1.11 yields about 4.6%. A yield is only worth something if the payment behind it holds up, so I compared the two on coverage, debt and operating momentum.

Dividend Coverage and Free Cash Flow: Verizon Wins

AT&T makes its strongest case here. Its payout comes to about 49% of the low end of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.25-$2.35. Verizon’s comes to roughly 57% of its $4.99 to $5.04 range. On paper, AT&T’s dividend is better covered.

The cash flow points the other way. Verizon raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to $21.94 billion to $22.14 billion, which works out to growth of 9% to 10%, on CapEx of $16 billion to $16.5 billion. AT&T targets more than $18 billion while spending $23 billion to $24 billion on CapEx. Management also says 2026 dividends plus buybacks will use up “essentially 100% of our outlook for free cash flow.” Verizon pays for a rising dividend, buybacks of up to $4.5 billion and debt reduction out of the same cash. AT&T also expects its legacy EBITDA to turn negative after 2027.

Balance Sheet and Debt: Verizon Wins Clearly

Both companies took on debt to buy fiber. The Frontier deal drove Verizon’s net unsecured debt to adjusted EBITDA to 2.5x, up from 2.2x, and interest expense rose 18.9% in Q1. That pressure is real, but leverage is heading down. CFO Tony Skiadas said earlier this year, “We remain firmly on track to achieve our target net unsecured leverage ratio of 2x to 2.25x during the 2027 timeframe.”

AT&T’s leverage is 2.68x on $144 billion of total debt, already above its target. Management expects leverage to rise to the 3.2x range after the EchoStar (NASDAQ:SATS) spectrum purchase and to return to 2.5x only within approximately three years. For a dividend that has already been cut once, leverage is moving the wrong way.

Subscriber and Revenue Trajectory: AT&T Wins

Right now AT&T is the stronger operator. Its Q2 revenue grew 2.3%, while Verizon’s fell 0.7%. AT&T added 432,000 postpaid phones with churn at 0.86%. Verizon added 184,000 with churn at 0.92%. AT&T also guides to a double-digit three-year adjusted EPS growth rate (CAGR) through 2028.

Verizon’s turnaround is building. A year earlier it lost 9,000 postpaid phones, and its EBITDA margin has since expanded to 40.1% from 37.1%. Even so, AT&T takes this round.

Track Record Settles the Decade Question

Verizon’s January increase was its 20th consecutive year of raises. Its quarterly payment has gone from 64 cents in 2022 to 70.75 cents. AT&T cut its quarterly dividend from 52 cents to 27.75 cents in 2022, a reduction of about 47%, and plans to hold $1.11 flat through 2028. Over 10 years, Verizon’s adjusted share price rose 53.02%, compared with 44.21% for AT&T.

Verdict: Verizon Is the Yield to Trust

Verizon wins for anyone who needs income that grows and lasts a decade. It pays the higher yield, produces more free cash flow on lower capex, and its leverage is falling while AT&T’s is rising. That is the whole idea behind a dividend ladder you never have to sell out of, which we laid out in a free guide here. AT&T fits total-return investors who want operating momentum and about $24 billion of buybacks over 2026 to 2028, and who can accept a frozen dividend.

Here is what would break the Verizon case. If the subscriber turnaround stalls and competition forces management to dip into what it calls its “large war chest,” getting leverage down would take longer than 2027, and dividend growth would likely shrink to small raises. Keep an eye on postpaid phone adds against guidance for the upper half of the 750,000 to 1 million range.

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