Investing

AMD’s Biggest Analyst Price Target Is Eye-Opening. Here’s What It Would Take to Reach It

BNP Paribas just slapped a price target on AMD that towers over Wall Street consensus, but reaching it would demand a sequence of wins that our model says the stock has not yet earned.

By Vandita Jadeja
Published October 8, 2026, 8:45am ET · 3 min read

Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

A 3D render of an AMD EPYC server processor, angled against a dark teal background. The light gray heat spreader on top features the black 'AMD EPYC' logo. Below it, colorful silicon dies and chiplets are visible on a dark blue substrate, showcasing the complex internal architecture. The chip casts a soft shadow on the gradient background, conveying a high-tech and professional aesthetic.
An AMD EPYC processor, symbolizing the company's strong performance and increasing market share in the data center segment. This technology is central to AMD's ongoing growth against competitors. © Advanced Micro Devices

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD | AMD Price Prediction) received a $960 price target from BNP Paribas, well above Wall Street consensus. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is $622.15 with a hold rating. Reaching BNP’s number would require about 46% upside from current levels.

Metric Value
Current Price $656.10
24/7 Wall St. Price Target $622.15
Upside/Downside -5.17%
Recommendation HOLD
Confidence Level 90%

Our model has high confidence that AMD trades close to fair value after a huge run. The consensus analyst target of $636.21 also sits below the share price. Even so, the Street is overwhelmingly positive, with 5 Strong Buy, 39 Buy and 11 Hold ratings and no Sells.

AMD analyst ratings

Why We Could Be Wrong

Our target sits below today’s price, but AMD has real catalysts. Management says Helios demand is “tracking ahead of our initial forecasts,” and expects to “significantly exceed our $20 annual EPS target.” The bull case below explains how AMD could outperform.

A 197% Year-to-Date Run Powered by Data Center Doubling

AMD shares have climbed 197.2% year-to-date, up 33.28% over the past month. The 52-week range runs from $188.22 to $658.52.

Second-quarter revenue rose 50.11% to $11.536 billion, beating estimates. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 topped the $1.6107 consensus. Data Center revenue jumped 107%. AMD agreed to buy World Labs in an $8.2 billion all-stock deal, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) landed a $1.2 billion Helios order from Vultr.

AMD price target

What It Would Take to Hit $960

At $960, AMD would trade at about 78x forward EPS and 62x the 2027 consensus of $15.5833. Earnings of $20 per share would bring that multiple to 48x. AMD needs to reach its long-term EPS goal while investors maintain today’s premium.

BNP analyst Karl Ackerman (Outperform) points to Helios, backed by 14 gigawatts of commitments from OpenAI, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) and Anthropic. He believes AMD can win at least 8% of the GPU market by 2030.

Management expects Data Center revenue to “more than double year-over-year in 2027.” Our 12-month bull case is $692.43 (the traits that showed up in prior monster tech runs are the same ones we cataloged in a free playbook here: The Next Nvidia Playbook).

AMD price scenario

Where the $486 Bear Case Comes From

AMD trades at 245x trailing earnings, so even a short Helios delay could pressure the stock. Gaming revenue fell 31%, and export controls and HBM supply remain risks. Free cash flow fell 9.89%, though capex jumped 186.52% to build capacity. Our bear case is $486.32.

How AMD Compares to NVIDIA and Intel

Company Trailing P/E Gross Margin Latest Revenue Growth
AMD 245 49.52% 50.11%
NVIDIA 48 71.1% 105.85%
Intel Negative 34.8% 25.42%

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is AMD’s direct AI accelerator rival. It grew faster last quarter, earns wider margins and trades at a much lower trailing multiple. Next to NVIDIA, $960 looks aggressive.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is AMD’s x86 server CPU rival. Its Data Center and AI revenue rose 59%, but Intel is unprofitable on a trailing basis. AMD’s wider margin explains why investors pay a premium over Intel.

AMD Price Prediction 2026-2030

I’m sticking with a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $622.15 and a hold rating at 90% confidence, driven mainly by valuation. I’d turn more constructive if Q3 revenue tops $13 billion guidance and Helios shipments accelerate in Q4. Our model’s highest five-year scenario, $826.94, still falls short of $960.

The table below shows where our model projects AMD could trade if current growth trends and market conditions hold.

Year Bear Base Bull
2026 $656.10 $656.10 $656.10
2027 $519.86 $625.02 $700.93
2028 $458.99 $618.22 $744.86
2029 $426.38 $645.63 $727.59
2030 $432.04 $666.73 $782.57

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

1INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

Brokerage and Active investing products offered through SoFi Securities LLC, member FINRA(www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org).2The probability of a member receiving $3,000 is 0.028%. If you don’t make a selection in 45 days, you’ll no longer qualify for the promo. Members must fund their account with a minimum of $50.00 to qualify. The probability percentage is subject to decrease. Members are only eligible for the Stock Award promotion upon opening their first brokerage account; subsequent cash brokerage accounts are ineligible for the promo, including for members with multiple accounts.

3Other fees, such as exchange fees, may apply. Please view our fee disclosure to view a full listing of fees.

4There are limitations with fractional shares to consider before investing. During market hours fractional share orders are transmitted immediately in the order received. There may be system delays from receipt of your order until execution and market conditions may adversely impact execution prices. Outside of market hours orders are received on a not held basis and will be aggregated for each security then executed in the morning trade window of the next business day at market open. Share will be delivered at an average price received for executing the securities through a single batched order. Fractional shares may not be transferred to another firm. Fractional shares will be sold when a transfer or closure request is initiated. Please consider that selling securities is a taxable event.
Vandita Jadeja

Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.

Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.

When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.

All articles →