Could This Chipmaker Really Overtake Intel in Revenue by 2031?
Marvell's management just handed Wall Street a revenue target so far above analyst models that the stock surged double digits, yet one key risk could make the whole thesis collapse before the decade ends.
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Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL | MRVL Price Prediction) expects about $20 billion of revenue in fiscal 2028. On Oct. 6, the company’s management told investors it can reach $70 billion to $90 billion by 2031. The low end of that range alone tops the $57.03 billion that Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) booked over its last four reported quarters.
The fiscal calendar shortens the runway. Barron’s noted that Marvell’s fiscal 2026 ended in January, and the target applies to fiscal 2031. That year runs mostly through calendar 2030, so Marvell actually has slightly less time than the headline suggests.
Marvell’s Target Nearly Doubles Wall Street’s Model
Wall Street had estimated $47 billion. Reuters put the $80 billion midpoint against a Visible Alpha consensus of $46.85 billion. The stock rose 9.52% intraday off a $270.90 open. At $285.29, shares are up 219% year to date as of Wednesday’s close. CNBC flagged one warning: Even after tripling, the stock is trading 10% below its June high.
Murphy Has Already Outrun His Old Markers
The case rests on credibility. On September 8, CEO Matt Murphy told Jim Cramer that Marvell had moved from guiding $10 billion of revenue this year to $12 billion and from $13.5 billion to $18 billion for 2027. His August earnings call took the same tone: “AI-related bookings remain exceptionally robust, and we expect our revenue growth to accelerate further through the remainder of fiscal 2027.”
Data Center revenue reached $2.1715 billion last quarter, up 46% and now 79% of sales.
Google’s Deal Puts Weight Behind the Back End
Custom silicon carries the long-range math. Marvell’s agreement with Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could generate up to $120 billion in sales through fiscal 2033 if milestones are achieved. Murphy told analysts: “You should assume in that time frame that on the custom side, these numbers would be a lot larger than, you know, overall custom than anybody’s been modeling so far.” Executives also size the addressable market at $400 billion by 2030.
Where Marvell Stands Against Intel and Broadcom
Intel is growing again. Second-quarter revenue rose 25.42% to $16.128 billion. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said: “Our Q2 results represent our strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years, enabled by greater speed, accountability, and customer focus.”
Intel Foundry still posted a $2.1 billion operating loss in that quarter. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) runs the same hyperscaler ASIC and networking playbook, and its shares rose about 4% in early trading on Marvell’s news. Investors treated the target as validation for the entire custom-silicon trade.
What Has to Go Right Before 2031
Reaching the low end requires about 52% annual growth from fiscal 2028’s base. Last quarter’s revenue growth was 36.55%. Customer concentration, limited wafer supply and hyperscalers moving silicon in-house remain known risks. At 62x forward earnings, a stumble would hit the stock hard.
My call: Marvell’s odds of passing Intel’s current revenue are credible, given repeated upward revisions. Overtaking Intel’s 2031 revenue depends on Intel’s own recovery. Keep an eye on next quarter’s data center growth, guided near 75%, and Google’s milestone pace.
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Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
